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Low-dose extrapolation in toxicology: an old controversy revisited

机译：毒理学中的低剂量外推法：重新讨论了一个古老的争议

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A conservative strategy of estimating toxicity at low doses is to determine the risk at high doses and connect the high-level risk to the zero intercept (Hengstler et al. 2003). However, in some cases this type of extrapolation may result in unreasonable conclusions. To illustrate the inappropriate-ness of the linear dose-response extrapolation, a ban of high-heeled shoes has been used as a humorous analogy for the following reason (Goldman 1996): Assume that every human being on earth adds a 3-cm lift to his shoes. It is well known that cosmic ray dose doubles for every 2,000 m in altitude, but the resulting increase in cosmic ray dose by high-heeled shoes is extremely small. However, multiplied by the population of earth, this would result in a dose that causes cancer in approximately 30,000 individuals in 50 years (from Hengstler et al. 2003). Mathematically this example is accurate, but thus far no one has seriously considered banning high-heeled shoes
机译：估计低剂量毒性的保守策略是确定高剂量风险并将高风险与零截距联系起来（Hengstler et al。2003）。但是，在某些情况下，这种推断可能导致不合理的结论。为了说明线性剂量反应外推法的不合适性，出于以下原因，将高跟鞋的禁令用作幽默的类比（Goldman 1996）：假设地球上的每个人都会增加3厘米的高度穿上鞋子众所周知，每海拔2000 m宇宙射线剂量加倍，但是高跟鞋导致的宇宙射线剂量增加非常小。然而，乘以地球人口，这将导致在50年内导致约30,000个人罹患癌症的剂量（摘自Hengstler等人2003）。从数学上讲，这个例子是正确的，但到目前为止，还没有人认真考虑过禁止高跟鞋

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