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首页> 外文期刊>Asia-Pacific journal of public health >Controlling influenza A (H1N1) in China: Bayesian or frequentist approach
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Controlling influenza A (H1N1) in China: Bayesian or frequentist approach

机译:在中国控制甲型H1N1流感:贝叶斯方法或常识性方法

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摘要

This article discusses two approaches to controlling the newly identified influenza A (H1N1): via Bayesian and frequentist statistical reasoning. This study reviewed the measures implemented in China as an example to illustrate these two approaches. Since May 2009, China has deployed strict controlling mechanisms based on the strong prior Bayesian assumption that the origin of influenza A (H1N1) was from outside China and as such strict border control would keep the virus from entering China. After more than 4 months of hard work by Chinese health professionals and officials, the number of confirmed influenza A (H1N1) has increased steadily against the expectations of the general public. Taking into account the great financial burden in maintaining strict measures, Chinese health authorities have slowly adjusted their policies of controlling influenza A (H1N1) in China according to frequentist reasoning since July 2009.
机译:本文讨论了两种控制新近识别出的甲型H1N1流感的方法:通过贝叶斯方法和频繁统计推理。本研究以在中国实施的措施为例来说明这两种方法。自2009年5月以来,中国根据先前的贝叶斯强有力的假设(即甲型H1N1流感的来源是中国境外)采取了严格的控制机制,因此严格的边境控制将阻止该病毒进入中国。经过中国卫生专业人员和官员的四个多月的辛勤工作,确诊的甲型H1N1流感的数量一直稳定增长,超出了公众的期望。考虑到维持严格措施的巨大经济负担,自2009年7月以来,中国卫生当局根据常识性推理,已缓慢调整了其在中国控制甲型H1N1流感的政策。

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