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首页> 外文期刊>Australian Forestry >Development of a model system to predict wildfire behaviour in pine plantations
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Development of a model system to predict wildfire behaviour in pine plantations

机译：预测松树森林野火行为的模型系统的开发

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摘要

We describe the development of a model system to predict fire behaviour over the full range of potential fire behaviour in the various types of fuel complexes found in exotic pine plantations in relation to environmental conditions. The proposed system integrates a series of sub-models describing surface fire characteristics and crown fire potential (e.g. onset of crowning, type of crown fire and associated rate of spread). The main inputs are wind speed, fine dead fuel moisture content and fuel complex structure (surface fuel bed characteristics, canopy base height and canopy bulk density). The detail with which the model system treats surface and crown fire behaviour allows users to quantify stand 'flammability' with stand age for particular silvicultural prescriptions. The application of the model to a case study of thinning treatments in a radiata pine plantation in Victoria is presented. The results highlight the complex interactions that take place between fire behaviour and attendant fuel and weather conditions. Structural changes in the fuel complex introduced by the treatments altered fire behaviour, but no definite reduction and or increase in rate of fire spread was identified. The results illustrate the role that simulation models canplay in support of silvicultural and fuel management decision making.
机译：我们描述了一种模型系统的开发，该模型可预测与环境条件相关的外来松树人工林中发现的各种类型的燃料复合物中潜在的火灾行为的整个范围。拟议的系统集成了一系列描述地面着火特性和冠顶着火潜力的子模型（例如，冠冕的发作，冠顶着火的类型和相关的扩散率）。主要输入是风速，精细的死燃料水分含量和复杂的燃料结构（表面燃料床特性，顶篷基高和顶篷容积密度）。模型系统处理表面和冠部着火行为的细节使用户可以根据特定的造林处方来量化林分“可燃性”以及林龄。介绍了该模型在维多利亚辐射松人工林间伐处理案例研究中的应用。结果突出了火灾行为与伴随的燃料和天气状况之间发生的复杂相互作用。通过处理引入的燃料复合物的结构变化改变了火的行为，但是没有确定明确的减少和/或增加火的蔓延速率。结果表明，仿真模型可以在支持造林和燃料管理决策中发挥作用。

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