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首页> 外文期刊>Indian Journal of Agricultural Marketing >PRICE DYNAMICS OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY FUTURES AND ITS IMPACT ON DEMAND - SUPPLY SITUATION OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
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PRICE DYNAMICS OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY FUTURES AND ITS IMPACT ON DEMAND - SUPPLY SITUATION OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES

机译：农业商品期货价格动态及其对农业商品供求状况的影响。

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摘要

This paper explore the changes in the prices of agricultural commoajty futures and its likely impact on the demand-supply situation, the basis behaviour and the impact of basis risk on futures contracts, and measure the historical volatility indices for trading of agricultural commodities. Futures prices for agricultural commodities are the main source for price determination in many spot markets because of their transparency and the strong relationship futures prices have with cash prices. The difference in spot and.futures prices is capable of causing a shift in the demand-supply mechanisms in favour.of a particular time period to the prejudice of the other. For instance, when futures prices are higher than spot prices for an agricultural commodity, the farmers would like to sell the commodity in future, bringing down the supply levels at present. However, the lower prices at present compared to future prices prompts a high demand for the commodity at present. This mechanism causes excess demandin the present time period and pushes up the price of the commodity in question, thereby causing higher levels of inflation. A few fundamental factors (i.e., the cost to carry a physical asset) inform supply/ demand for the commodity, which ultimately determines the shape of the futures curve. Supply meets demand where market participants are willing to agree about the expected future spot Price. In order to see the impact of basis risk, the analysis in this study was performed on two commodities namelyMaize (a non-banned commodity) for Nizamabad market and Wheat (a banned commodity) for Delhi market. The potentially successful contracts are the ones which allow the substitution of lower basis risk for higher spot price risk.
机译：本文探讨了农产品期货价格的变化及其对需求状况，基准行为和基准风险对期货合约的影响的可能影响，并测量了农产品交易的历史波动率指标。在许多现货市场中，农产品期货价格是确定价格的主要来源，因为它们具有透明度，并且期货价格与现金价格之间存在密切关系。现货和期货价格的差异能够导致在特定时期内有利于需求的供求机制发生变化，从而对另一个时期产生偏见。例如，当期货价格高于农产品的现货价格时，农民希望将来出售该商品，从而降低目前的供应水平。但是，与未来价格相比，目前的价格较低，导致目前对商品的需求很高。这种机制导致当前时期的需求过剩，并推高了相关商品的价格，从而导致较高的通货膨胀率。一些基本因素（即，携带有形资产的成本）决定了商品的供求关系，最终决定了期货曲线的形状。在市场参与者愿意就预期的未来现货价格达成一致的情况下，供应满足需求。为了了解基础风险的影响，本研究针对两种商品进行了分析，即针对Nizamabad市场的玉米（非禁止商品）和针对德里市场的小麦（禁止商品）。潜在成功的合同是那些可以用较低的基础风险代替较高的现货价格风险的合同。

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