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Consumer Demand System for Long Term Projections

机译:长期预测的消费者需求系统

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摘要

Policy analysis in a number of areas requires long term projections requiring some sectoral detail. We present a non-linear demand system and price and income elasticities suitable or projections extending over 30 years that involve large increases inincome. Elasticities are calculated for 22 consumption commodities of which 14 are agricultural goods. The approach is extendable to many more commodities. We also present piece-wise linear approximations of the demand system that can be incorporated into a long term policy model. Thus we estimate a Linear Expenditure system (LES) for each of ten rural and ten urban expenditure classes of consumers.
机译:许多领域的政策分析需要长期的预测,需要一些部门的细节。我们提出了一个非线性的需求系统和合适的价格和收入弹性,或者预测了超过30年的预测,其中涉及到收入的大幅增加。计算了22种消费商品的弹性,其中14种是农产品。该方法可扩展到更多商品。我们还提出了可以纳入长期政策模型的需求系统的分段线性近似。因此,我们估计了十个农村和十个城市支出类别的消费者的线性支出系统(LES)。

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