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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of applied earth observation and geoinformation >Looking back and looking forwards: Historical and future trends in sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indo-Pacific region from 1982 to 2100
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Looking back and looking forwards: Historical and future trends in sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indo-Pacific region from 1982 to 2100

机译：回顾与展望：1982年至2100年印度太平洋地区海表温度（SST）的历史和未来趋势

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摘要

The ocean warming trend is a well-known global phenomenon. As early as 2001, and then reiterated in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the global average sea surface temperature (SST) will increase by about 0.2 degrees C per decade. To date, however, only a limited number of studies have been published reporting the spatio-temporal trends in SST in the Indo-Pacific region, one the richest marine ecosystems on Earth. In this research, the monthly 1 degrees spatial resolution NOAA Optimum Interpolation (01) sea surface temperature (SST) V2 dataset (OISSTv2) derived from measurements made by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and in situ measurements, were used to examine the spatio-temporal trends in SST in the region. The multi-model mean SST from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6) mitigation scenario of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was also used to forecast future SST from 2020 to 2100, decadally. Three variables from the OISSTv2, namely maximum (MaxSST), mean (MeanSST) and minimum (MinSST) monthly mean SST, were regressed against time measured in months from 1982 to 2010 using linear regression. Results revealed warming trends detected for all three SST variables. In the Coral Triangle a warming trend with a rate of 0.013 degrees C year(-1), 0.017 degrees C year(-1), and 0.019 degrees C year(-1) was detected over 29 years for MaxSST, MeanSST and MinSST, respectively. In the SCS, the warming rate was 0.011 degrees C year(-1), (MaxSST), 0.012 degrees C year-1 (MeanSST) and 0.015 degrees C year(-1) (MinSST) over 29 years. The CMIP5 RCP2.6 forecast suggested a future warming rate to 2100 of 0.004 degrees C year(-1) for both areas, and for all three SST variables. The warming trends reported in this study provide useful insights for improved marine-related management. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：海洋变暖趋势是一种众所周知的全球现象。政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）早在2001年，然后在2007年再次重申，全球平均海表温度（SST）每十年将增加约0.2摄氏度。然而，迄今为止，仅发表了少量研究报告了印度太平洋区域（地球上最丰富的海洋生态系统之一）SST的时空趋势。在这项研究中，每月1度空间分辨率NOAA最佳插值（01）海面温度（SST）V2数据集（OISSTv2）是根据先进超高分辨率辐射计（AVHRR）进行的测量和原位测量得出的该区域SST的时空趋势。耦合模型比对项目第5阶段（CMIP5）的代表浓度路径（RCP2.6）缓解方案中的多模型平均SST也被用来预测2020年至2100年的未来SST。使用线性回归，将OISSTv2中的三个变量，即最大值（MaxSST），平均值（MeanSST）和最小值（MinSST）每月平均SST相对于1982年至2010年月份中的时间进行了回归。结果显示，所有三个SST变量均检测到变暖趋势。在珊瑚三角地区，在29年中，MaxSST，MeanSST和MinSST的升温趋势分别为0.013摄氏度年（-1），0.017摄氏度年（-1）和0.019摄氏度年（-1），分别。在南海，29年的升温速率分别为0.011摄氏度（-1），（MaxSST），0.012摄氏度（-1）（MeanSST）和0.015摄氏度（-1）（-1）（MinSST）。 CMIP5 RCP2.6预测表明，两个地区以及所有三个SST变量的未来升温速度都将达到0.004摄氏度年（-1）的2100。本研究报告的变暖趋势为改善海洋相关管理提供了有用的见识。 （C）2015 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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