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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Biometeorology: Journal of the International Society of Biometeorology >Climatic impacts on winter wheat in Oklahoma and potential applications to climatic and crop yield prediction
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Climatic impacts on winter wheat in Oklahoma and potential applications to climatic and crop yield prediction

机译：气候对俄克拉荷马州冬小麦的影响及其在气候和作物产量预报中的潜在应用

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摘要

Climatic anomalies can pose severe challenges for farmers and resource managers. This is particularly significant with respect to gradually developing anomalies such as droughts. The impact of the 1995-1996 drought on the Oklahoma wheat crop, and the possibility that predictive information might have reduced some of the losses, is examined through a combined modeling approach using climatological data and a crop growth model that takes into account an extensive range of soil, climatic, and plant variables. The results show potential outcomes and also illustrate the point at which all possible climatic outcomes were predicting a significantly low wheat yield. Based on anecdotal evidence of the 1995-1996 drought, which suggested that farmers who planted at different times experienced different yields, the model was run assuming a variety of different planting dates. Results indicate that there is indeed a noticeable difference in the modeled wheat yields given different planting dates. The information regarding effectiveness of planting date can be used in conjunction with current long-range forecasts to develop improved predictions for the current growing season. This approach produces information regarding the likelihood of extreme precipitation events and the impact on crop yield, which can provide a powerful tool to farmers and others during periods of drought or other climatic extremes.
机译：气候异常可能给农民和资源管理者带来严峻挑战。对于逐渐发展的异常现象，例如干旱，这尤其重要。 1995-1996年干旱对俄克拉荷马州小麦作物的影响以及预测信息可能减少了部分损失的可能性，通过结合气候数据和作物生长模型的综合建模方法进行了研究，该模型考虑了广泛的范围土壤，气候和植物变量。结果显示了潜在的结果，也说明了所有可能的气候结果都预测小麦单产将大大降低的时间点。基于1995年至1996年干旱的轶事证据，该证据表明在不同时间种植的农民经历了不同的单产，该模型在假设各种种植日期的情况下运行。结果表明，在不同播种日期的情况下，模拟的小麦产量确实存在显着差异。有关播种日期有效性的信息可以与当前的长期预报结合使用，以针对当前的生长期开发出改进的预报。这种方法产生有关极端降水事件的可能性及其对作物产量的影响的信息，这可以为干旱和其他极端气候时期的农民和其他人提供强大的工具。

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