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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Rural Management >The Viability of Weather-index Insurance inManaging Drought Risk in Rural Australia
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The Viability of Weather-index Insurance inManaging Drought Risk in Rural Australia

机译：天气指数保险在管理澳大利亚农村干旱风险中的可行性

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摘要

Agriculture is the trade of rural Australians and managing weather risk have implications for Australian demographics. Consequently, we looked into the strategies farmers adopted to manage their revenue risk due to drought with a focus on wheat farmers.The prospects of managing the challenges of indemnity-based insurance with rainfall index insurance were discussed. We established the relationship between yield and cumulative standardized precipitation indices and concluded that a strong relationship between the rainfall index and yield does not necessarily lead to high hedging efficiency. The hedging efficiency of the product was analyzed using the mean root square loss, conditional tail expectation and certainty equivalence of revenue while the spatial and temporal nature of the risk were captured with loss ratios. It was observed that the inverse relationship between price and yield offsets some risks and reduces the efficiency of weather hedges. Differences were observed in the hedging efficiencyacross locations and efficiency was noted to be dependent on the methodology adopted. The results from the loss ratio analysis showed that pooling insurance contracts reduced risk to the insurer. We concluded that other variables would have to be takeninto consideration in order to make the design of weather-index insurance more robust and that tax incentives on insurance premium would motivate farmers to be profitable.
机译：农业是澳大利亚农村人口的贸易，管理天气风险对澳大利亚人口统计具有影响。因此，我们研究了农民为应对干旱造成的收入风险而采取的策略，重点是小麦农民。讨论了使用降雨指数保险管理基于赔付保险的挑战的前景。我们建立了产量与累积标准降水指数之间的关系，并得出结论，降雨指数与产量之间的紧密关系并不一定会导致较高的对冲效率。使用均方根损失，条件有条件的尾部期望和收益的确定性等价分析产品的对冲效率，同时以损失比率记录风险的时空性质。据观察，价格与收益率之间的逆向关系抵消了一些风险并降低了对冲天气的效率。观察到各地的套期保值效率存在差异，效率被认为取决于所采用的方法。损失率分析的结果表明，合并保险合同可以降低保险人的风险。我们得出的结论是，为了使天气指数保险的设计更加稳健，还必须考虑其他变量，并且保险费的税收优惠将激励农民盈利。

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