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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Technology Management: The Journal of the Technology Management of Technology, Engineering Management, Technology Policy and Strategy >Learning curves and technology assessment
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Learning curves and technology assessment

机译：学习曲线和技术评估

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This paper uses the formal concept of teaming curves to analyse regular behaviour of performance improvements in various energy technologies. The concept allows the estimation of a single indicator of technological progress, the teaming rate. which expresses the constant percentage improvement (usually in terms of cost reductions) in a technology for each doubling of the technology's cumulative installed capacity. We present 42 energy-related teaming rates, either calculated directly from available data or assembled from the literature. We elaborate briefly on eight of these to illustrate issues addressed by technology assessments to convert these raw historical teaming rates into prospective teaming rate distributions for use in long-term energy models. The paper includes a sensitivity analysis of policy-relevant variables with respect to teaming rates, a discussion of possible extensions and limitations of the approach and an outlook on future work in the field. [References: 45]
机译：本文使用成组曲线的形式概念来分析各种能源技术中性能改进的常规行为。该概念允许估算技术进步的单个指标即组队率。表示技术的累积装机容量每增加一倍，技术的改进百分比就会不断提高（通常是在降低成本方面）。我们提出了42种与能源有关的成对比率，可以直接从可用数据中计算得出，也可以从文献中汇总得出。我们简要地阐述了其中的八个，以说明技术评估所解决的问题，以将这些原始的历史分组率转换为预期的分组率分布，以用于长期能源模型。该论文包括对与团队比率有关的政策相关变量的敏感性分析，对该方法可能的扩展和局限性的讨论以及对该领域未来工作的展望。 [参考：45]

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