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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Wildland Fire >A review of recent advances in risk analysis for wildfire management. (Special Issue: Advances in understanding and managing wildland fire: communicating wildland fire research to land-management practitioner.)
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A review of recent advances in risk analysis for wildfire management. (Special Issue: Advances in understanding and managing wildland fire: communicating wildland fire research to land-management practitioner.)

机译:回顾野火管理风险分析的最新进展。 (特刊:在了解和管理野火​​方面的进展:将野火研究与土地管理从业人员进行交流。)

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摘要

Risk analysis evolved out of the need to make decisions concerning highly stochastic events, and is well suited to analyse the timing, location and potential effects of wildfires. Over the past 10 years, the application of risk analysis to wildland fire management has seen steady growth with new risk-based analytical tools that support a wide range of fire and fuels management planning scales from individual incidents to national, strategic interagency programs. After a brief review of the three components of fire risk - likelihood, intensity and effects - this paper reviews recent advances in quantifying and integrating these individual components of fire risk. We also review recent advances in addressing temporal dynamics of fire risk and spatial optimisation of fuels management activities. Risk analysis approaches have become increasingly quantitative and sophisticated but remain quite disparate. We suggest several necessary and fruitful directions for future research and development in wildfire risk analysis.Digital Object Identifier http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF11114
机译:风险分析是出于对高度随机事件做出决策的需要而发展的,非常适合分析野火的时间,位置和潜在影响。在过去的十年中,通过基于风险的新分析工具,风险分析在野地火管理中的应用稳步增长,该工具支持从个人事故到国家战略跨机构计划的各种火灾和燃料管理计划规模。在简要分析火灾风险的三个组成部分(可能性,强度和影响)之后,本文回顾了在量化和整合火灾风险的各个组成部分方面的最新进展。我们还将回顾在解决火灾风险的时间动态和燃料管理活动的空间优化方面的最新进展。风险分析方法已变得越来越量化和复杂,但仍然截然不同。我们为野火风险分析的未来研究和开发提供了一些必要且富有成果的指导。数字对象标识符http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF11114

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