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Evaluating orangutan census techniques using nest decay rates: Implications for population estimates

机译：使用巢衰减率评估猩猩普查技术：对种群估计的影响

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An accurate estimate for orangutan nest decay time is a crucial factor in commonly used methods for estimating orangutan population size. Decay rates are known to vary, but the decay process and, thus, the temporal and spatial variation in decay time are poorly understood. We used established line-transect methodology to survey orangutan nests in a lowland forest in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, and monitored the decay of 663 nests over 20 months. Using Markov chain analysis we calculated a decay time of 602 days, which is significantly longer than times found in other studies. Based on this, we recalculated the orangutan density estimate for a site in East Kalimantan; the resulting density is much lower than previous estimates (previous estimates were 3-8 times higher than our recalculated density). Our data suggest that short-term studies where decay times are determined using matrix mathematics may produce unreliable decay times. Our findings have implications for other parts of the orangutan range where population estimates are based on potentially unreliable nest decay rate estimates, and we recommend that for various parts of the orangutan range census estimates be reexamined. Considering the high variation in decay rates there is a need to move away from using single-number decay time estimates and, preferably, to test methods that do not rely on nest decay times as alternatives for rapid assessments of orangutan habitat for conservation in Borneo.
机译：猩猩巢衰减时间的准确估算是估算猩猩种群规模的常用方法中的关键因素。衰减率已知会发生变化，但是对衰减过程以及衰减时间的时空变化知之甚少。我们使用已建立的线样线方法对印度尼西亚东加里曼丹低地森林中的猩猩巢进行调查，并监测了663个巢在20个月内的腐烂。使用马尔可夫链分析，我们计算出了602天的衰减时间，该时间明显长于其他研究中发现的时间。基于此，我们重新计算了东加里曼丹地区的猩猩密度估计值。结果密度远低于先前的估算值（先前的估算值是我们重新计算的密度的3-8倍）。我们的数据表明，使用矩阵数学确定衰减时间的短期研究可能会产生不可靠的衰减时间。我们的发现对猩猩范围的其他部分有潜在影响，在这些区域中，种群估计是基于可能不可靠的巢衰减率估计，因此，建议对猩猩范围的各个部分进行普查。考虑到腐烂率的高变化，有必要摆脱使用单一数目的腐烂时间估计，并且最好测试不依赖巢状腐烂时间作为快速评估婆罗洲猩猩栖息地的替代方法。

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