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FIRST-ORDER ASYMPTOTIC THEORY FOR PARAMETRIC MISSPECIFICATION TESTS OF GARCH MODELS

机译:GARCH模型的参数错误指定测试的一阶渐近理论

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摘要

This paper develops a framework for the construction and analysis of parametric misspecification tests for generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models, based on first-order asymptotic theory. The principal finding is that estimation effects from the correct specification of the conditional mean (regression) function can be asymptotically nonnegligible. This implies that certain procedures, such as the asymmetry tests of Engle and Ng (1993, Journal of Finance 48, 1749-1777) and the nonlinearity test of Lundbergh and Terasvirta (2002, Journal of Econometrics 110, 417-435), are asymptotically invalid. A second contribution is the proposed use of alternative tests for asymmetry and/or nonlinearity that, it is conjectured, should enjoy improved power properties. A Monte Carlo study supports the principal theoretical findings and also suggests that the new tests have fairly good size and very good power properties when compared with the Engle and Ng (1993) and Lundbergh and Terasvirta (2002) procedures.
机译:本文基于一阶渐近理论,为广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)模型的参数错误指定测试的构建和分析开发了一个框架。主要发现是,从条件均值(回归)函数的正确规范得出的估计效果可能在渐近上不可忽略。这意味着某些过程(例如Engle和Ng的不对称性检验(1993年,金融期刊48,1749-1777年)以及Lundbergh和Terasvirta的非线性度检验(2002年,计量经济学110年,417-435年)是渐近的。无效。第二个贡献是建议用于不对称和/或非线性的替代测试,据推测,该测试应具有改进的功率特性。蒙特卡洛的研究支持了主要的理论发现,并且还表明,与Engle和Ng(1993)以及Lundbergh和Terasvirta(2002)的程序相比,新测试具有相当好的尺寸和非常好的功率特性。

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