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Growth, Political Instability and the Defence Burden

机译：增长，政治动荡和国防负担

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摘要

I develop and test a model to examine the economic effects of political instability and military expenditure. Defence plays three important roles in the model: (i) it provides insurance against political instability; (ii) it augments the human capitalstock by training the labour force; but (Hi) it comes at the expense of consumption. The resulting theory predicts that increased political instability or increased defence can inhibit economic growth. Using panel data, I find that increases in political instability do decrease growth while increases in defence do decrease political instability. I also find that increases in defence have a direct negative effect on growth, although the relation is weak.
机译：我开发并测试了一个模型，以检验政治不稳定和军事开支的经济影响。国防在该模型中扮演着三个重要角色：（i）为政治不稳定提供保障; （ii）通过培训劳动力来增加人力资本;但是（嗨）这是以消耗为代价的。由此产生的理论预测，政治动荡的加剧或国防的增加会抑制经济增长。使用面板数据，我发现政治不稳定的增加确实会减少增长，而国防增加确实会减少政治不稳定。我还发现，国防关系的增强对增长有直接的负面影响，尽管这种关系很弱。

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