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首页> 外文期刊>Ecological informatics: an international journal on ecoinformatics and computational ecology >Beyond species distribution modeling: A landscape genetics approach to investigating range shifts under future climate change
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Beyond species distribution modeling: A landscape genetics approach to investigating range shifts under future climate change

机译：超越物种分布建模：一种景观遗传学方法来研究未来气候变化下的范围变化

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Understanding how biodiversity will respond to future climate change is a major conservation and societal challenge. Climate change is predicted to force many species to shift their ranges in pursuit of suitable conditions. This study aims to use landscape genetics, the study of the effects of environmental heterogeneity on the spatial distribution of genetic variation, as a predictive tool to assess how species will shift their ranges to track climatic changes and inform conservation measures that will facilitate movement. The approach is based on three steps: 1) using species distribution models (SDMs) to predict suitable ranges under future climate change, 2) using the landscape genetics framework to identify landscape variables that impede or facilitate movement, and 3) extrapolating the effect of landscape connectivity on range shifts in response to future climate change. I show how this approach can be implemented using the publicly available genetic dataset of the grey long-eared bat, Plecotus austriacus, in the Iberian Peninsula. Forest cover gradient was the main landscape variable affecting genetic connectivity between colonies. Forest availability is likely to limit future range shifts in response to climate change, primarily over the central plateau, but important range shift pathways have been identified along the eastern and western coasts. I provide outputs that can be directly used by conservation managers and review the viability of the approach. Using landscape genetics as a predictive tool in combination with SDMs enables the identification of potential pathways, whose loss can affect the ability of species to shift their range into future climatically suitable areas, and the appropriate conservation management measures to increase landscape connectivity and facilitate movement. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：了解生物多样性将如何应对未来的气候变化是一项重大的保护和社会挑战。据预测，气候变化将迫使许多物种改变其范围以追求合适的条件。这项研究旨在利用景观遗传学（环境异质性对遗传变异空间分布的影响的研究）作为一种预测工具，以评估物种将如何改变其范围以跟踪气候变化并提供有助于移动的保护措施。该方法基于三个步骤：1）使用物种分布模型（SDM）预测未来气候变化下的合适范围; 2）使用景观遗传学框架识别阻碍或促进运动的景观变量，以及3）推断范围变化的景观连通性，以应对未来的气候变化。我展示了如何使用伊比利亚半岛的灰色长耳蝙蝠Plecotus austriacus的公开遗传数据集来实施这种方法。森林覆盖梯度是影响殖民地之间遗传联系的主要景观变量。森林的可利用性可能会限制未来因气候变化而发生的范围变化，主要是在中部高原地区，但是已经在东部和西部沿海地区发现了重要的范围变化路径。我提供了保护经理可以直接使用的输出，并回顾了该方法的可行性。使用景观遗传学作为与SDM结合的预测工具，可以识别潜在的途径，这些途径的损失会影响物种将其范围转移到未来的气候适宜区域的能力，并采取适当的保护管理措施来增加景观的连通性并促进迁移。 （C）2015 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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