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Slow earthquakes and great earthquakes along the Nankai trough

机译:南开海槽慢地震和大地震

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摘要

We have reexamined reports indicating that slow deformation occurred before the great Japan earthquakes of 1944 (Tonankai) and 1946 (Nankaido) and find that the observations are well founded. Although no quantitative models have previously been proposed to explain all of the relevant data we show that they are satisfied by a simple model for both earthquakes. The model, based on known properties of subduction zones, has slow slip on the subduction interface in an area deeper than the seismic rupture. If this model is correct and a similar physical situation holds for an anticipated Tokai earthquake, existing instruments will be able to reveal the pre-slip in real time. While differences among the deformation time series at different sites will provide strong constraints on the slow rupture propagation, these differences could result in delaying the recognition of a coherent event.
机译:我们已经重新审查了表明缓慢变形发生在1944年(东南海)和1946年(南海道)日本大地震之前的报告,并发现这些发现是有根据的。尽管以前没有提出定量模型来解释所有相关数据,但我们表明,对于两个地震,它们都被一个简单的模型所满足。该模型基于俯冲带的已知特性,在俯冲界面上比地震破裂更深的区域具有缓慢的滑动。如果该模型正确,并且对于预期的东海地震也具有类似的物理情况,则现有仪器将能够实时显示预滑动。虽然不同位置的变形时间序列之间的差异将对缓慢的破裂传播提供强大的约束,但这些差异可能会导致延迟对相干事件的识别。

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