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首页> 外文期刊>Earth and Planetary Science Letters: A Letter Journal Devoted to the Development in Time of the Earth and Planetary System >The evolution of El Nino, past and future
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The evolution of El Nino, past and future

机译：厄尔尼诺的发展，过去和未来

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摘要

We review forecasts of the future of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a coupled instability of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific with global impacts. ENSO in the modem world is briefly described, and the physics of the ENSO cycle is discussed. Particular attention is given to the Bjerknes feedback, the instability mechanism which figures prominently in ENSO past and future. Our knowledge of ENSO in the paleoclimate record has expanded rapidly within the last 5 yr. The ENSO cycle is present in all relevant records, going back 130 kyr. It was systematically weaker during the early and middle Holocene, and model studies indicate that this results from reduced amplification in the late summer and early fall, a consequence of the altered mean climate in response to boreal summer perihelion. Data from corals shows substantial decadal and longer variations in the strength of the ENSO cycle within the past 1000 yr; it is suggested that this may be due to solar and volcanic variations in solar insolation, amplified by the Bjerknes feedback. There is some evidence that this feedback has operated in the 20th century and some model results indicate that it will hold sway in the greenhouse future, but it is very far from conclusive. The comprehensive general circulation models used for future climate projections leave us with an indeterminate picture of ENSO's future. Some predict more ENSO activity, some less, with the highly uncertain consensus forecast indicating little change. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：我们回顾了厄尔尼诺和南方涛动（ENSO）的未来预测，这是热带太平洋海洋-大气系统的不稳定性与全球性影响之间的耦合。简要介绍了现代调制解调器中的ENSO，并讨论了ENSO循环的物理原理。特别关注Bjerknes反馈，这种不稳定机制在ENSO的过去和未来都非常重要。在过去的5年中，我们在古气候记录中对ENSO的了解迅速增长。 ENSO循环出现在所有相关记录中，可追溯到130年。在全新世早期和中期，它在系统上较弱，模型研究表明，这是由于夏末和初秋的扩增减少而造成的，这是由于夏季北方近日点阵风响应而改变的平均气候的结果。珊瑚的数据显示，过去1000年来，ENSO周期的强度发生了较大的年代际变化和更长的变化;建议这可能是由于太阳日照的太阳和火山变化，这是由Bjerknes反馈放大的结果。有证据表明，这种反馈在20世纪一直有效，一些模型结果表明它将在温室的未来中保持主导地位，但远非结论性的。用于未来气候预测的全面的一般环流模型使我们对ENSO的未来充满不确定性。有些人预测ENSO活动更多，有些人预测较少，而高度不确定的共识预测表明变化很小。 （C）2004 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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