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首页> 外文期刊>Ecological Modelling >Assessing the impact of climate change on the habitat distribution of the giant panda in the Qinling Mountains of China
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Assessing the impact of climate change on the habitat distribution of the giant panda in the Qinling Mountains of China

机译：评估气候变化对中国秦岭大熊猫栖息地分布的影响

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Climate change threatens global ecosystems and the maintenance of biodiversity via its impacts on the survival of individual species and the preservation of their ecological functions. The effects of climate change are particularly evident in the mountainous areas of southwestern China that support the last remaining populations of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). However, very few studies to date have assessed the likely impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of giant panda habitat. In this paper, we developed a mechanistic model that uses climatic variables (rather than biotic variables) to(i) examine how variation in landscape scale climate influences the spatial distribution of panda habitat in China's Qinling Mountains, and (ii) evaluate how the distribution and extent of panda habitat will change in the future under forecast climate change scenarios. We found that there was substantial variation in temperature throughout the study area that correlated with variation in altitude. Under climate change scenarios, the future climate in this region (during the period 2070–2100) would be far warmer and wetter than the current climate (for the period 1990–2007). Our model results revealed that this predicted climate change could reduce the extent of a suitable habitat for giant pandas by up to 62% (under IPCC SRES A2 scenarios; and 37% under IPCC SRES B2 scenarios). We also showed that as a result of this predicted climate change, the minimum elevation of panda habitat would rise by 500 m. Accordingly, our model showed that on the basis of predicted climate change, a new suitable giant panda habitat would likely become available in areas further north of their current range (at higher latitudes, in the northwest part of the study region). Finally, and most importantly, we showed that the established network of nature reserves within this study region does not adequately protect the current distribution of suitable panda habitat, nor will it protect suitable panda habitat in the future.
机译：气候变化通过影响单个物种的生存及其生态功能的维持，威胁着全球生态系统和生物多样性的维护。气候变化的影响在中国西南部的山区尤为明显，这些山区为大熊猫（Ailuropoda melanoleuca）的剩余种群提供了支持。但是，迄今为止，很少有研究评估气候变化可能对大熊猫栖息地的分布和丰富程度产生影响。在本文中，我们开发了一种使用气候变量（而非生物变量）的机械模型，以（i）研究景观尺度气候变化如何影响中国秦岭大熊猫栖息地的空间分布，以及（ii）评估分布在预测的气候变化情景下，熊猫栖息地的范围和范围将在未来发生变化。我们发现整个研究区域的温度都存在很大的变化，这与海拔高度的变化有关。在气候变化情景下，该地区（2070年至2100年期间）的未来气候将比当前气候（1990年至2007年期间）温暖得多。我们的模型结果表明，这种预测的气候变化可能使大熊猫的合适栖息地减少多达62％（在IPCC SRES A2方案下;在IPCC SRES B2方案下37％）。我们还表明，由于这种预测的气候变化，熊猫栖息地的最低海拔将增加500 m。因此，我们的模型表明，在预测的气候变化的基础上，一个新的合适的大熊猫栖息地可能会出现在其当前范围以北的地区（在研究地区的西北部更高的纬度）。最后，最重要的是，我们表明在该研究区域内已建立的自然保护区网络不能充分保护当前合适的熊猫栖息地分布，也不会在将来保护合适的熊猫栖息地。

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