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首页> 外文期刊>Ecological Modelling >Spatial patterns of ARIMA modeled rates of change of atherinids (Chirostoma spp.) and goodeid Chapalichthys encaustus from Lake Chapala, Mexico
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Spatial patterns of ARIMA modeled rates of change of atherinids (Chirostoma spp.) and goodeid Chapalichthys encaustus from Lake Chapala, Mexico

机译：ARIMA的空间格局模拟了墨西哥查帕拉湖的动脉粥样硬化（Chirostoma spp。）和古猿查帕利希斯encaustus的变化率

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We implemented the first systematic sampling fish survey from June 1997 to February of 1999 in Lake Chapala. Atherinid (Chirostoma spp.) and "pintilla" goodeid Chapalichthys encaustus mean densities ranged between 0.11-2.15 and 0.04-2.92 fish/m(3), respectively. Atherinids reached maximum densities of 4.28 fish/m(3) near Ajijic city and "pintilla" goodeids peaked at 12.28 fish/m(3) near the municipal discharge of Jocotepec City. Shifts from atherinid dominant to "pintilla" goodeid dominant were detected in areas influenced by municipal discharges from Jocotepec, Ajijic, Chapala and Tizapan cities, and Lerma River inflow. Municipal discharges induced shifts in fish community structure by reducing the abundance of the more profitable atherinids to a level where less profitable goodeids increased in the fish community. Time series modeling of non-stationary atherinid and "pintilla" goodeid density and biomass series revealed two patterns of dynamics in Lake Chapala. We found density-independent Integrated Moving Average (IMA) models for atherinid rates of change in areas influenced by municipal discharges from Jocotepec, Ajijic, Chapala and Tizapan cities, and Lerma River inflow. MA parameters (theta(1)) indicated random-shock environmentally-driven time series dynamics. Density-dependent integrated autoregressive (ARI) models were found for atherinid rates of change at all other sampling stations. First-order ARI models found had phi(1) parameters between -1 and 0, which indicated density-dependent quasi-cyclic dynamics through time. Variances explained by ARI models were higher at the western than at the eastern region of Lake Chapala. Rate of dampening of forecasted quasi-cycles for atherinids and pintilla goodeids was higher at the eastern than western region of Lake Chapala. Pollution effect on quasi-cyclic fish population patterns are analogous to overfishing in regards that pollution-induced mortality removes part of the fish stock, and consequently the effect of density-dependent compensatory mechanisms tend to diminish as pollution levels increase. Cyclic second-order ARI models were found near San Luis Soyatlan for atherinids and pintilla goodeids. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. [References: 38]
机译：我们于1997年6月至1999年2月在恰帕拉湖实施了首次系统的鱼类抽样调查。 Atherinid（Chirostoma spp。）和“ pintilla” goodeid Chapalichthys encaustus平均密度分别在0.11-2.15和0.04-2.92条鱼/米之间（3）。在阿吉吉克市附近，类风杆菌的最大密度为4.28鱼/米（3），在乔科特佩克市的市政排水口附近，“ pintilla”古猿的最高密度为12.28鱼/米（3）。在受Jocotepec，Ajijic，Chapala和Tizapan市的市政排水以及莱尔马河入流影响的地区，检测到了从粥样动物优势向“ pintilla”古人优势的转变。市政排放通过将更多有利可图的粥样动物的数量减少到鱼类社区中较少获利的商品类增加的水平，引起鱼类群落结构的变化。非平稳的atherineid和“ pintilla”古迹密度和生物量系列的时间序列建模揭示了查帕拉湖的两种动力学模式。我们发现了不受密度影响的综合移动平均线（IMA）模型，以计算受Jocotepec，Ajijic，Chapala和Tizapan市的市政排水以及莱尔马河入流影响的地区的动脉粥样硬化变化率。 MA参数（theta（1））表示随机冲击环境驱动的时间序列动力学。在所有其他采样站发现了密度依赖的综合自回归（ARI）模型，以测得动脉粥样硬化的变化率。发现的一阶ARI模型的phi（1）参数在-1和0之间，指示随时间变化的与密度有关的准循环动力学。 ARI模型解释的方差在Chapala湖的西部高于东部。东部的动脉粥样硬化和品脱类的准周期的衰减率高于查帕拉湖西部地区。对准循环鱼类种群模式的污染影响类似于过度捕捞，因为污染引起的死亡率消除了部分鱼类资源，因此，随着污染水平的提高，依赖密度的补偿机制的作用趋于减弱。在圣路易斯索亚特兰附近发现了周期性的二阶ARI模型，用于研究类脂素和小品甜品。 （C）2003 Elsevier Science B.V.保留所有权利。 [参考：38]

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