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首页> 外文期刊>Ecological Modelling >The gypsy moth life stage model: landscape-wide estimates of gypsy moth establishment using a multi-generational phenology model
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The gypsy moth life stage model: landscape-wide estimates of gypsy moth establishment using a multi-generational phenology model

机译：吉普赛蛾的生命阶段模型：使用多代物候模型对吉普赛蛾的建立进行全景观评估

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A multi-generational model of gypsy moth phenology was developed from existing literature and used to assess the risk of establishment of this exotic pest across North America based on the suitability of 4457 locations in satisfying the temperature requirements for seasonal development. Approximately 595 million hectares of North America is estimated to be climatically suitable for gypsy moth establishment. Limits to the potential range exist in the southern United States because of limits to diapause development, and in northern Canada because of slower prediapause and larval development. A 1.5 degreesC increase in mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures, as might occur with global climate change, would result in a range expansion in the north, a range contraction in the south, and a net increase in range of approximately 16%. The model is described and the probable limitations to establishment are discussed. Crown Copyright (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：从现有文献中开发了多代吉卜赛蛾物候模型，并基于4457个地点满足季节性发展所需温度的适宜性，评估了该害虫在北美各地定殖的风险。据估计，北美大约有5.95亿公顷的气候适合吉普赛蛾的生产。由于滞育发育的限制，在美国南部存在潜在范围的限制，而由于滞育前和幼虫的发育较慢，在加拿大北部存在。全球气候变化可能会使平均每日最高和最低温度升高1.5摄氏度，这将导致北部的范围扩大，南部的范围缩小以及范围的净增加约16％。描述了该模型，并讨论了建立的可能限制。官方版权（C）2004，Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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