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首页> 外文期刊>Ecological Modelling >Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK
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Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

机译：使用链接网络和基于网格的模型进行流行病学风险评估：英国疫霉菌和疫霉菌（Phytophthora kernoviae）在英国

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We developed a stochastic simulation model incorporating most processes likely to be important in the spread of Phytophthora ramorum and similar diseases across the British landscape (covering Rhododendron ponticum in woodland and nurseries, and Vaccinium myrtillus in heathland). The simulation allows for movements of diseased plants within a realistically modelled trade network and long-distance natural dispersal. A series of simulation experiments were run with the model, representing an experiment varying the epidemic pressure and linkage between natural vegetation and horticultural trade, with or without disease spread in commercial trade, and with or without inspections-with-eradication, to give a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 factorial started at 10 arbitrary locations spread across England. Fifty replicate simulations were made at each set of parameter values. Individual epidemics varied dramatically in size due to stochastic effects throughout the model. Across a range of epidemic pressures, the size of the epidemic was 5-13 times larger when commercial movement of plants was included. A key unknown factor in the system is the area of susceptible habitat outside the nursery system. Inspections, with a probability of detection and efficiency of infected-plant removal of 80% and made at 90-day intervals, reduced the size of epidemics by about 60% across the three sectors with a density of 1% susceptible plants in broadleaf woodland and heathland. Reducing this density to 0.1% largely isolated the trade network, so that inspections reduced the final epidemic size by over 90%, and most epidemics ended without escape into nature. Even in this case, however, major wild epidemics developed in a few percent of cases. Provided the number of new introductions remains low, the current inspection policy will control most epidemics. However, as the rate of introduction increases, it can overwhelm any reasonable inspection regime, largely due to spread prior to detection.
机译：我们开发了一个随机模拟模型，该模型包含了可能对疫霉菌和类似疾病在整个英国景观中传播非常重要的大多数过程（在林地和苗圃中发现了杜鹃花杜鹃，在希思兰中发现了桃金娘科植物）。该模拟允许病态植物在逼真的建模贸易网络和远距离自然扩散中移动。使用该模型进行了一系列模拟实验，分别代表改变流行病压力和自然植被与园艺贸易之间的联系，有无疾病在商业贸易中传播以及有无根除检查的实验，得出2 x 2 x 2 x 2阶乘从遍布英格兰的10个任意位置开始。在每组参数值上进行了五十次重复仿真。由于整个模型的随机效应，各个流行病的规模差异很大。在一定范围的流行压力下，当包括植物的商业运输时，流行的规模是5-13倍。该系统中一个关键的未知因素是苗圃系统外部的易感栖息地面积。每隔90天进行一次检查，检出被感染植物的效率为80％，间隔90天进行一次检查，这三个部门的流行病规模减少了约60％，在阔叶林地中易感植物的密度为1％。荒地。将此密度降低到0.1％，很大程度上使贸易网络孤立了，因此检查使最终的流行病规模减少了90％以上，大多数流行病都没有逃到自然界而结束。然而，即使在这种情况下，也有少数病例发生了主要的野生流行病。如果新引进的数量仍然很少，那么当前的检查政策将控制大多数流行病。但是，随着引入率的提高，它可能会使任何合理的检查制度不堪重负，这在很大程度上是由于在检测之前已经扩散了。

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