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Structural changes in lake functioning induced from nutrient loading and climate variability

机译：养分含量和气候变化引起的湖泊功能结构变化

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Climate variability is increasingly recognized as an important regulatory factor, capable of influenc_ing the structural properties of aquatic ecosystems. Lakes appear to be particularly sensitive to the ecological impacts of climate variability, and several long time series have shown a close coupling between climate, lake thermal properties and individual organism physiology, population abundance, community structure, and food web dynamics. Thus, understanding the complex interplay among mete_orological forcing, hydrological variability, and ecosystem functioning is essential for improving the credibility of model-based water resources/fisheries management. Our objective herein is to exam_ine the relative importance of the ecological mechanisms underlying plankton seasonal variability in Lake Washington, Washington State (USA), over a 35-year period (1964-1998). Our analysis is founded upon an intermediate complexity plankton model that is used to reproduce the limiting nutrient (phosphate)-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (particulate phosphorus) dynamics in the lake. Model parameterization is based on a Bayesian calibration scheme that offers insights into the degree of infor_mation the data contain about model inputs and allows obtaining predictions along with uncertainty bounds for modeled output variables. The model accurately reproduces the key seasonal planktonic pat_terns in Lake Washington and provides realistic estimates of predictive uncertainty for water quality variables of environmental management interest. A principal component analysis of the annual esti_mates of the underlying ecological processes highlighted the significant role of the phosphorus recycling stemming from the zooplankton excretion on the planktonic food web variability. We also identified a moderately significant signature of the local climatic conditions (air temperature) on phytoplankton growth (r=0.41), herbivorous grazing (r=0.38), and detritus mineralization (r=0.39). Our study seeks linkages with the conceptual food web model proposed by Hampton et al. [Hampton, S.E., Scheuerell, M.D., Schindler, D.E., 2006b. Coalescence in the Lake Washington story: interaction strengths in a planktonic food web. Limnol. Oceanogr. 51, 2042-2051.] to emphasize the "bottom-up" control of the Lake Wash_ington plankton phenology. The posterior predictive distributions of the plankton model are also used to assess the exceedance frequency and confidence of compliance with total phosphorus (15 L-1) and chlorophyll a (4 _g L~-1) threshold levels during the summer-stratified period in Lake Washington. Finally, we conclude by underscoring the importance of explicitly acknowledging the uncertainty in ecological forecasts to the management of freshwater ecosystems under a changing global environment.
机译：人们越来越认识到，气候多变性是一种重要的调控因素，能够影响水生生态系统的结构特性。湖泊似乎对气候变化的生态影响特别敏感，几个长期序列显示气候，湖泊热性质与个体生物生理学，种群数量，社区结构和食物网动态之间有着密切的联系。因此，了解气象强迫，水文变异性和生态系统功能之间的复杂相互作用对于提高基于模型的水资源/渔业管理的信誉至关重要。我们在这里的目标是，在35年的时间里（1964-1998年），研究华盛顿州华盛顿湖（美国）浮游生物季节性变化的生态机制的相对重要性。我们的分析基于一个中等复杂度的浮游生物模型，该模型用于再现湖泊中有限的养分（磷酸盐）-浮游植物-浮游生物-碎屑（颗粒磷）的动态。模型参数化基于贝叶斯校准方案，该方案可提供有关数据中有关模型输入的信息程度的见解，并允许获取预测值以及建模输出变量的不确定性范围。该模型准确地再现了华盛顿湖的关键季节性浮游模式，并为环境管理关注的水质变量提供了预测不确定性的现实估计。对潜在生态过程的年度估计值的主成分分析强调了浮游动物排泄所产生的磷循环对浮游食物网变异性的重要作用。我们还确定了本地气候条件（气温）对浮游植物生长（r = 0.41），草食性放牧（r = 0.38）和碎屑矿化（r = 0.39）的中等显着性特征。我们的研究寻求与汉普顿等人提出的概念性食物网模型的联系。 [Hampton，S.E.，Scheuerell，M.D.，Schindler，D.E.，2006b。华盛顿湖故事中的合并：浮游食物网中的互动优势。 Limnol。海洋学家。 51，2042-2051。]强调“华盛顿自下而上”对华盛顿湖浮游生物的物候控制。浮游生物模型的后验预测分布还用于评估夏季分层湖中总磷（15 L-1）和叶绿素a（4 _g L〜-1）阈值水平的超标频率和信度华盛顿。最后，我们通过强调明确承认生态预测中的不确定性对不断变化的全球环境下淡水生态系统管理的重要性。

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