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首页> 外文期刊>Ecological Modelling >Carbon sequestration in soils of SW-Germany as affected by agricultural management-Calibration of the EPIC model for regional simulations
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Carbon sequestration in soils of SW-Germany as affected by agricultural management-Calibration of the EPIC model for regional simulations

机译：农业管理对西南部德国土壤中的碳固存的影响-区域模拟EPIC模型的校准

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Global emissions trading allows for agricultural measures to be accounted for the carbon sequestration in soils. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was tested for central European site conditions by means of agricultural extensification scenarios. Results of soil and management analyses of different management systems (cultivation with mouldboard plough, reduced tillage, and grassland/fallow establishment) on 13 representative sites in the German State Baden-Murttemberg were used to calibrate the EPIC model. Calibration results were compared to those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prognosis tool. The first calibration step included adjustments in (a) N depositions, (b) N-2-fixation by bacteria during fallow, and (c) nutrient content of organic fertilisers according to regional values. The mixing efficiency of implements used for reduced tillage and four crop parameters were adapted to site conditions as a second step of the iterative calibration process, which should optimise the agreement between measured and simulated humus changes. Thus, general rules were obtained for the calibration of EPIC for different criteria and regions. EPIC simulated an average increase of +0.341 Mghumus-Cha(-1) a(-1) for on average 11.3 years of reduced tillage compared to land cultivated with mouldboard plough during the same time scale. Field measurements revealed an average increase of +0.343 MgC ha(-1) a(-1) and the IPCC prognosis tool +0.345 MgCha(-1) a(-1). EPIC simulated an average increase of +1.253 MgC ha(-1) a(-1) for on average 10.6 years of grassland/fallow establishment compared to an average increase of +1.342 Mg humus-Cha(-1) a(-1) measured by field measurements and +1.254MgCha(-1) a(-1) according to the IPCC prognosis tool. The comparison of simulated and measured humus C stocks was r(2) > 0.825 for all treatments. However, on some sites deviations between simulated and measured results were considerable. The result for the simulation of yields was similar. in 49% of the cases the simulated yields differed from the surveyed ones by more than 20%. Some explanations could be found by qualitative cause analyses. Yet, for quantitative analyses the available information from farmers was not sufficient. Altogether EPIC is able to represent the expected changes by reduced tillage or grassland/fallow establishment acceptably under central European site conditions of south-western Germany.
机译：全球排放交易允许将农业措施考虑到土壤中的碳固存。通过农业扩张情景对中欧现场条件测试了环境政策综合气候（EPIC）模型。对德国巴登-符腾堡州13个代表性地点的不同管理系统（用犁板耕种，耕种减少和草地/休耕地进行耕作）进行土壤和管理分析的结果用于校准EPIC模型。将校准结果与政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）预后工具的校准结果进行了比较。第一步校准包括调整（a）氮沉降，（b）休耕期间细菌对N-2-的固定以及（c）根据区域值对有机肥料的营养成分进行调整。用于减少耕种的农具的混合效率和四个农作物参数适应现场条件，作为迭代校准过程的第二步，这应优化实测腐殖质变化与模拟腐殖质变化之间的一致性。因此，获得了针对不同标准和地区进行EPIC校准的一般规则。 EPIC模拟在相同时间范围内与用刨板犁耕种的土地相比，平均耕种减少了11.3年，平均增加了+0.341 Mghumus-Cha（-1）a（-1）。现场测量显示，平均增加+0.343 MgCha（-1）a（-1）+ 0.343 MgC ha（-1）a（-1）和IPCC预后工具。 EPIC模拟草地/休耕地平均平均10.6年的+1.253 MgC ha（-1）a（-1）平均增加，而腐殖质-Cha（-1）a（-1）平均增加+1.342 MgC ha（-1）a（-1）根据IPCC预后工具，通过现场测量和+ 1.254MgCha（-1）a（-1）进行测量。对于所有处理，模拟和测得的腐殖质碳储量的比较r（2）> 0.825。但是，在某些站点上，模拟结果与测量结果之间的偏差相当大。产量模拟的结果相似。在49％的情况下，模拟产量与被调查的产量相差20％以上。通过定性原因分析可以找到一些解释。但是，对于定量分析，农民提供的信息还不够。在德国西南部中欧的现场条件下，EPIC可以通过减少耕种或减少草地/休闲地来表示预期的变化。

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