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Evaluating the ecological benefits of wildfire by integrating fire and ecosystem simulation models

机译：通过整合火灾和生态系统仿真模型评估野火的生态效益

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Fire managers are now realizing that wildfires can be beneficial because they can reduce hazardous fuels and restore fire-dominated ecosystems. A software tool that assesses potential beneficial and detrimental ecological effects from wildfire would be helpful to fire management. This paper presents a simulation platform called FLEAT (Fire and Landscape Ecology Assessment Tool) that integrates several existing landscape- and stand-level simulation models to compute an ecologically based measure that describes if a wildfire is moving the burning landscape towards or away from the historical range and variation of vegetation composition. FLEAT uses a fire effects model to simulate fire severity, which is then used to predict vegetation development for 1,10, and 100 years into the future using a landscape simulation model. The landscape is then simulated for 5000 years using parameters derived from historical data to create an historical time series that is compared to the predicted landscape composition at year 1, 10, and 100 to compute a metric that describes their similarity to the simulated historical conditions. This tool is designed to be used in operational wildfire management using the LANDFIRE spatial database so that fire managers can decide how aggressively to suppress wildfires. Validation of fire severity predictions using field data from six wildfires revealed that while accuracy is moderate (30-60%), it is mostly dictated by the quality of GIS layers input to FLEAT. Predicted 1-year landscape compositions were only 8% accurate but this was because the LANDFIRE mapped pre-fire composition accuracy was low (21%). This platform can be integrated into current readily available software products to produce an operational tool for balancing benefits of wildfire with potential dangers.
机译：消防经理现在意识到野火可能是有益的，因为它们可以减少有害燃料并恢复以火灾为主导的生态系统。评估野火潜在的有益和有害生态影响的软件工具将有助于火灾管理。本文介绍了一个称为FLEAT（火灾和景观生态评估工具）的仿真平台，该平台集成了几种现有的景观和林立水平仿真模型，以计算基于生态的度量，该度量描述了野火是否正在使燃烧的景观朝着历史方向或远离历史方向移动。植被组成的范围和变化。 FLEAT使用火灾影响模型来模拟火灾严重性，然后使用景观模拟模型来预测未来1,10和100年的植被发展。然后使用从历史数据得出的参数对景观进行5000年的模拟，以创建历史时间序列，并将其与第1年，第10年和第100年的预测景观组成进行比较，以计算描述其与模拟历史条件相似性的度量。该工具旨在用于使用LANDFIRE空间数据库的野火管理中，以便消防管理人员可以决定如何积极地抑制野火。使用来自6次野火的现场数据对火灾严重程度的预测进行验证，结果表明，尽管准确性适中（30-60％），但这主要取决于输入到FLEAT的GIS图层的质量。预测的1年景观构图精度仅为8％，但这是因为LANDFIRE映射的火灾前构图精度较低（21％）。该平台可以集成到当前随时可用的软件产品中，以产生可在野火收益与潜在危险之间取得平衡的操作工具。

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