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首页> 外文期刊>Ecological Modelling >System-analytical modelling - Part II - Wheat biotime run and yield formation. Agroclimatic potential, the Le Chatelier principle, and changes in agroclimatic potential and climate in Russia and the US
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System-analytical modelling - Part II - Wheat biotime run and yield formation. Agroclimatic potential, the Le Chatelier principle, and changes in agroclimatic potential and climate in Russia and the US

机译：系统分析建模-第二部分-小麦生物时间运行和产量形成。农业气候潜力，Le Chatelier原理以及俄罗斯和美国的农业气候潜力和气候变化

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System-analytical modelling (SAM) shows that plants possess two types of biological time that alternate during the annual cycle of plant development. The alternation of these biotimes and the process of yield formation are described by the previously derived information principle. The elaborated model of the agroecosysterns of wheat is characterized by theoretically best accuracy. The model serves as a basis for the universal model of land agroclimatic potential (AP). This study simultaneously estimated the vegetation biotime run and phenological development, 12-month dynamics of soil humidity, yield formation and its bulk, multiple year trends of mean monthly air temperature, monthly precipitation, and agricultural technologies efficiency dependent on soil fertility as well as AP dynamics. The calculations were made through the mathematical solutions of inverse problems, with the help of the model. Only the long-term series of actual wheat/cereal yields, along with the long-term average monthly values of air temperature and precipitation, were used as input data. With SAM and the grain-producing area of Siberia as a case study, the information basis for the well-known Le Chatelier principle characterizing self-stabilization of ecosystems and agroecosystems has been revealed. Self-stabilization provides the restriction on random variations of their specific basic processes (informational regulated biomass formation) up to 24%. Under such a restriction, the transfer of stochastic information that destroys the system information stability does not exist. SAM of current changes in both AP and climate in grain-producing areas of Russia, as well as in the U.S., has shown that the AP of the U.S. is twice as much as the Russian one. The manifestation of global warming in the U.S. is more significant than in Russia, and a decrease in precipitation in the U.S. and an increase in precipitation in Russia were found. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：系统分析模型（SAM）显示，植物具有两种类型的生物时间，它们在植物发育的年度周期中交替出现。这些生物时间的交替和产量形成的过程由先前得出的信息原理描述。小麦农业生态系统的详细模型在理论上具有最佳准确性。该模型是土地农业气候潜力通用模型的基础。这项研究同时估算了植被的生物时间和物候发育，土壤湿度的12个月动态，产量形成及其总量，平均月气温，降水量的多年趋势以及取决于土壤肥力和AP的农业技术效率动力学。在模型的帮助下，通过反问题的数学解进行了计算。仅将实际的小麦/谷物单产的长期序列以及气温和降水的长期平均每月值用作输入数据。以SAM和西伯利亚的粮食产区为例，揭示了表征生态系统和农业生态系统自我稳定的著名Le Chatelier原理的信息基础。自稳定作用限制了其特定基本过程（信息调节的生物量形成）的随机变化，最高可达24％。在这种限制下，不存在破坏系统信息稳定性的随机信息传输。 SAM对俄罗斯以及美国谷物生产地区当前AP和气候变化的看法表明，美国AP的数量是俄罗斯的AP的两倍。在美国，全球变暖的表现比在俄罗斯更显着，并且发现美国的降水减少而俄罗斯的降水增加。 （c）2005 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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