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首页> 外文期刊>Ecosystems >GLOBIO3: A Framework to Investigate Options for Reducing Global Terrestrial Biodiversity Loss
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GLOBIO3: A Framework to Investigate Options for Reducing Global Terrestrial Biodiversity Loss

机译：GLOBIO3：研究减少全球陆地生物多样性丧失方案的框架

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摘要

The GLOBIO3 model has been developed to assess human-induced changes in biodiversity, in the past, present, and future at regional and global scales. The model is built on simple cause-effect relationships between environmental drivers and biodiversity impacts, based on state-of-the-art knowledge. The mean abundance of original species relative to their abundance in undisturbed ecosystems (MSA) is used as the indicator for biodiversity. Changes in drivers are derived from the IMAGE 2.4 model. Drivers considered are land-cover change, land-use intensity, fragmentation, climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and infrastructure development. GLOBIO3 addresses (i) the impacts of environmental drivers on MSA and their relative importance; (ii) expected trends under various future scenarios; and (iii) the likely effects of various policy response options. GLOBIO3 has been used successfully in several integrated regional and global assessments. Three different global-scale policy options have been evaluated on their potential to reduce MSA loss. These options are: climate-change mitigation through expanded use of bio-energy, an increase in plantation forestry, and an increase in protected areas. We conclude that MSA loss is likely to continue during the coming decades. Plantation forestry may help to reduce the rate of loss, whereas climate-change mitigation through the extensive use of bioenergy crops will, in fact, increase this rate of loss. The protection of 20% of all large ecosystems leads to a small reduction in the rate of loss, provided that protection is effective and that currently degraded protected areas are restored.
机译：GLOBIO3模型的开发是为了评估区域，全球范围内过去，现在和未来的人为导致的生物多样性变化。该模型基于最新知识，基于环境驱动因素与生物多样性影响之间的简单因果关系。原始物种相对于未受干扰的生态系统中的物种的平均丰富度（MSA）被用作生物多样性的指标。驱动程序的更改源自IMAGE 2.4模型。考虑的驱动因素是土地覆盖变化，土地利用强度，破碎化，气候变化，大气氮沉积和基础设施发展。 GLOBIO3解决（i）环境驱动因素对MSA的影响及其相对重要性; （ii）在各种未来情况下的预期趋势; （iii）各种政策应对方案可能产生的影响。 GLOBIO3已成功用于多个区域和全球综合评估中。针对减少MSA损失的潜力，评估了三种不同的全球规模政策选择。这些选择是：通过扩大利用生物能源来缓解气候变化，增加人工林，增加保护区。我们得出的结论是，在未来几十年中，MSA的损失可能会继续。人工林可以帮助减少损失率，而通过广泛使用生物能源作物减轻气候变化实际上将增加这种损失率。如果保护有效并且当前退化的保护区得以恢复，则对所有大型生态系统的20％的保护会导致损失率的小幅降低。

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