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首页> 外文期刊>Ecology letters >Climate change impacts on tree ranges: Model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty
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Climate change impacts on tree ranges: Model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty

机译：气候变化对树木范围的影响：模型比对有助于理解和量化不确定性

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摘要

Model-based projections of shifts in tree species range due to climate change are becoming an important decision support tool for forest management. However, poorly evaluated sources of uncertainty require more scrutiny before relying heavily on models for decision-making. We evaluated uncertainty arising from differences in model formulations of tree response to climate change based on a rigorous intercomparison of projections of tree distributions in France. We compared eight models ranging from niche-based to process-based models. On average, models project large range contractions of temperate tree species in lowlands due to climate change. There was substantial disagreement between models for temperate broadleaf deciduous tree species, but differences in the capacity of models to account for rising CO _2 impacts explained much of the disagreement. There was good quantitative agreement among models concerning the range contractions for Scots pine. For the dominant Mediterranean tree species, Holm oak, all models foresee substantial range expansion.
机译：基于模型的气候变化引起的树种范围变化的预测正成为森林管理的重要决策支持工具。但是，在严重依赖模型进行决策之前，对不确定性来源的评估不充分需要更多的审查。我们根据法国对树木分布的预测进行了严格的比较，评估了因树木对气候变化的响应模型制定方法的差异而产生的不确定性。我们比较了八个模型，从基于利基的模型到基于过程的模型。平均而言，模型预测由于气候变化，低地的温带树种会有大范围的收缩。温带阔叶落叶乔木树种的模型之间存在很大分歧，但是解释CO _2上升影响的模型能力差异解释了许多分歧。模型之间关于苏格兰松树的范围收缩有很好的定量一致性。对于占主导地位的地中海乔木树种橡树橡木，所有模型都预示着范围的扩大。

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