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首页> 外文期刊>Earth Surface Processes and Landforms: The journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group >Statistical and empirical analyses of the triggers of coastal chalk cliff failure
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Statistical and empirical analyses of the triggers of coastal chalk cliff failure

机译：沿海粉笔崖崩塌成因的统计和实证分析

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The triggering factors of rock falls remain unknown due to a lack of exhaustive, regular and accurate surveys. Based on an inventory of 331 rock falls collected weekly between 2002 and 2009 from Veules-les-Roses to Le Treport (Upper Normandy), the relationships between coastal chalk cliff rock falls (dates and geomorphological features) and external factors commonly agreed as triggering (rainfall, temperature variations, tide and wind) are studied. The combination of multivariate statistical and empirical analyses indicates that (1) cold and dry weather' and high rainfall and high wind' are the conditions most likely to trigger rock falls, (2) the main triggering factors of rock falls are effective rainfall (for rock falls mostly between 200 and 1400m(3) or larger than 10 000m(3) and coming from the whole cliff face), freeze/thaw cycles (especially for rock falls smaller than 200m(3) and coming from the foot and top of the cliff face) and marine roughness (rock falls mainly smaller than 200m(3) and coming from the cliff foot). However, the contribution of each factor to triggering is difficult to determine because of combinations of factors (85% of 331 cases), relays of processes and hysteresis phenomena. In view of these first results, it is still presumptuous to predict the location and time of triggering of rock falls. However, the statistical and naturalistic approaches adopted and the observations made in this study are from an original database, and constitute a real starting point for the prediction and prevention of the hazard of coastal chalk cliff rock falls in Upper Normandy. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
机译：由于缺乏详尽，定期和准确的勘测，岩石崩塌的触发因素仍然未知。根据2002年至2009年之间每周从Veules-les-Roses到Le Treport（上诺曼底）的331个岩崩的清单，沿海粉笔峭壁岩崩（日期和地貌特征）与通常被认为是触发因素的外部因素之间的关系（降雨，温度变化，潮汐和风）。多元统计和经验分析的结合表明，（1）寒冷和干燥的天气以及高降雨和强风是最可能触发岩崩的条件，（2）岩崩的主要触发因素是有效降雨（对于岩石落在200至1400m（3）或大于10000m（3）之间，并且主要来自整个悬崖面），冻融循环（尤其是落石小于200m（3）且来自脚下和顶部）悬崖面）和海洋粗糙度（岩石坠落主要小于200m（3）且来自悬崖脚）。但是，由于因素的组合（331例中的85％），过程的传递和滞后现象的组合，很难确定每个因素对触发的贡献。鉴于这些最初的结果，预测岩崩触发的位置和时间仍然是一种假设。但是，本研究采用的统计和自然主义方法以及所观察到的数据均来自原始数据库，为预测和预防上诺曼底沿海白垩悬崖落石的危害提供了真实的起点。版权所有（c）2015 John Wiley＆Sons，Ltd.

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