• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Earth Surface Processes and Landforms: The journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group >A hydrogeomorphic assessment of twenty-first century floods in the UK
【24h】

A hydrogeomorphic assessment of twenty-first century floods in the UK

机译：英国二十世纪洪水的水文地貌评估

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

The occurrence of devastating floods in the British uplands during the first two decades of the twenty-first century poses two key questions: (1) are recent events unprecedented in terms of their frequency and magnitude; and (2) is climate and/or land-use change driving the apparent upturn in flooding? Conventional methods of analysing instrumental flow records cannot answer these questions because upland catchments are usually ungauged, and where records do exist they rarely provide more than 30-40 years of data. In this paper we analyse all lichen-dated upland flood records in the United Kingdom (UK) to establish the longer-term context and causes of recent severe flooding. Our new analysis of torrential sedimentary deposits shows that twenty-first century floods are not unprecedented in terms of both their frequency (they were more frequent before 1960) and magnitude (the biggest events occurred during the seventeenth-nineteenth centuries). However, in some areas recent floods have either equalled or exceeded the largest historical events. The majority of recent floods have been triggered by torrential summer downpours related to a marked negative phase of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) between 2007 and 2012. It is of concern that historical data suggests there is far more capacity in the North Atlantic climate system to produce wetter and more prolonged flood-rich periods than hitherto experienced in the twenty-first century. Looking forwards, an increased likelihood of weather extremes due to climate change means that geomorphological based flood series extensions must be placed at the centre of flood risk assessment in the UK uplands and in similar areas worldwide. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
机译：在二十一世纪的前二十年中，英国高地发生了毁灭性洪水，这提出了两个关键问题：（1）最近发生的事件在频率和规模上是前所未有的; （2）气候和/或土地利用变化是否导致洪水明显上升？传统的分析仪器流量记录的方法无法回答这些问题，因为通常没有高地集水区，并且在有记录的地方，它们很少提供超过30-40年的数据。在本文中，我们分析了英国（UK）的所有地衣日期的高地洪水记录，以建立近期环境和近期严重洪灾的成因。我们对洪流沉积物的新分析表明，就其发生频率（1960年之前更为频繁）和规模（最大的事件发生在17世纪至19世纪）而言，二十世纪的洪水并不是前所未有的。但是，在某些地区，最近的洪灾已经达到或超过了最大的历史事件。近期的大部分洪水是由于夏季暴雨引发的，而夏季暴雨与2007年至2012年夏季北大西洋涛动（NAO）的夏季显着负相位有关。令人担忧的是，历史数据表明，北大西洋气候的产能要大得多。该系统产生了比二十一世纪迄今所经历的更潮湿和更长寿的洪水时期。展望未来，由于气候变化而导致极端天气的可能性增加，这意味着基于地貌的洪水序列扩展必须放在英国高地和全球类似地区的洪水风险评估的中心。版权所有（c）2015 John Wiley＆Sons，Ltd.

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号