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首页> 外文期刊>Earth Surface Processes and Landforms: The journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group >GIS-assisted modelling for debris flow hazard assessment based on the events of May 1998 in the area of Sarno, Southern Italy: Part I. Maximum run-out
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GIS-assisted modelling for debris flow hazard assessment based on the events of May 1998 in the area of Sarno, Southern Italy: Part I. Maximum run-out

机译：基于GIS的泥石流危害评估建模，基于1998年5月在意大利南部萨尔诺地区发生的事件：第一部分：最大跳动

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Based on the debris flow events that occurred in May 1998 in the area of Sarno, Southern Italy, this paper presents an approach to simulate debris flow maximum run-out. On the basis of the flow source areas and an average thickness of 1 center dot 2 m of the scarps, we estimated debris flow volumes of the order of 10(4) and 10(5) m(3). Flow mobility ratios (Delta H/L) derived from the x, y, z coordinates of the lower-most limit of the source areas (i.e. apex of the alluvial fan) and the distal limit of the flows ranged between 0 center dot 27 and 0 center dot 09. We performed regression analyses that showed a good correlation between the estimated flow volumes and mobility ratios. This paper presents a methodology for predicting maximum run-out of future debris flow events, based on the developed empirical relationship. We implemented the equation that resulted from the calibration as a set of GIS macros written in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) and running within ArcGIS. We carried out sensitivity analyses and observed that hazard mapping with this methodology should attempt to delineate hazard zones with a minimum horizontal resolution of 0 center dot 4 km. The developed procedure enables the rapid delineation of debris flow maximum extent within reasonable levels of uncertainty, it incorporates sensitivities and it facilitates hazard assessments via graphic user interfaces and with modest computing resources. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
机译：基于1998年5月在意大利南部萨尔诺地区发生的泥石流事件，本文提出了一种模拟泥石流最大跳动的方法。根据流源面积和陡坡的1个中心点2 m的平均厚度，我们估计泥石流的数量级为10（4）和10（5）m（3）。从源区域的最下限（即冲积扇的顶点）的x，y，z坐标和流量的远端限制得出的流动迁移率比率（Delta H / L）介于0个中心点27和0个中心点09。我们进行了回归分析，结果显示估算流量和流动率之间具有良好的相关性。本文提出了一种基于已发展的经验关系来预测未来泥石流事件的最大跳动的方法。我们将校准产生的方程式实现为一组用Visual Basic for Applications（VBA）编写并在ArcGIS中运行的GIS宏。我们进行了敏感性分析，并观察到使用此方法进行危害映射应尝试以最小水平分辨率为0中心点4 km划定危害区域。所开发的程序可以在合理的不确定性水平内最大程度地快速描述泥石流，它具有敏感性，并且可以通过图形用户界面和适当的计算资源来进行危害评估。版权所有（c）2007 John Wiley＆Sons，Ltd.

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