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Estimating the Risk of Technology Development

机译：估算技术发展的风险

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摘要

A case study is presented on risk management as applied to the development of advanced technologies. The success of complex projects depends on the parallel development and integration of diverse technologies. Prior to investing large sums of money in these technologies, stakeholders want to know the risk in technology investment that includes the probability of technology development success and the impact the technology would have on the system. The risk identification process consists of developing the functional and technology needs of the system; collecting data on potential technology solutions; assessing the technology development probability of success for performance, cost, and schedule; determining the impact of the technology on the programs; and developing decision analysis presentations for the stakeholders. Based on a modified analytical hierarchical process, the Internet-Accessible Technology Risk Assessment Collaborative System (ITRACS) was developed to solicit opinions from experts across the nation for the technology probability of success assessment. In addition, the Framework for Advanced Systems Trade-offs using Probabilistic Analysis of Concepts and Technologies (FASTPACT) environment was developed to determine the technology impact on the system as measured by program Figures of Merit (FOMs) - safety, cost, and weight. The results from this technology analysis showed that many of the technologies in the present technology investment portfolio were not very effective in impacting the program FOMs, and that in some cases, multiple technologies in the same area should be funded to improve probability of development success.
机译：提出了有关应用于先进技术开发的风险管理的案例研究。复杂项目的成功取决于多种技术的并行开发和集成。在向这些技术投入大量资金之前，利益相关者希望了解技术投资的风险，其中包括技术开发成功的可能性以及该技术对系统的影响。风险识别过程包括开发系统的功能和技术需求;收集有关潜在技术解决方案的数据;评估性能，成本和进度方面技术开发成功的可能性;确定技术对计划的影响;并为利益相关者开发决策分析演示文稿。基于修改后的层次分析过程，开发了Internet可访问技术风险评估协作系统（ITRACS），以征询全国各地专家对技术成功评估的意见。此外，还开发了使用概念和技术概率分析（FASTPACT）环境进行高级系统权衡的框架，以确定对计划的绩效指标（FOM）衡量的技术对系统的影响-安全性，成本和重量。这项技术分析的结果表明，当前技术投资组合中的许多技术对计划FOM的影响不是很有效，并且在某些情况下，应该资助同一领域的多种技术以提高开发成功的可能性。

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