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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental science & policy >The impact of climate change mitigation on water demand for energy and food: An integrated analysis based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
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The impact of climate change mitigation on water demand for energy and food: An integrated analysis based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

机译：缓解气候变化对能源和粮食用水的影响：基于共同的社会经济途径的综合分析

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Climate change mitigation, in the context of growing population and ever increasing economic activity, will require a transformation of energy and agricultural systems, posing significant challenges to global water resources. We use an integrated modelling framework of the water-energy-land-climate systems to assess how changes in electricity and land use, induced by climate change mitigation, impact on water demand under alternative socioeconomic (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) and water policy assumptions (irrigation of bioenergy crops, cooling technologies for electricity generation). The impacts of climate change mitigation on cumulated global water demand across the century are highly uncertain, and depending on socioeconomic and water policy conditions, they range from a reduction of 15,000 km(3) to an increase of more than 160,000 km(3). The impact of irrigation of bioenergy crops is the most prominent factor, leading to significantly higher water requirements under climate change mitigation if bioenergy crops are irrigated. Differences in socioeconomic drivers and fossil fuel availability result in significant differences in electricity and bioenergy demands, in the associated electricity and primary energy mixes, and consequently in water demand. Economic affluence and abundance of fossil fuels aggravate pressures on water resources due to higher energy demand and greater deployment of water intensive technologies such as bioenergy and nuclear power. The evolution of future cooling systems is also identified as an important determinant of electricity water demand. Climate policy can result in a reduction of water demand if combined with policies on irrigation of bioenergy, and the deployment of non-water-intensive electricity sources and cooling types. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：在人口增长和经济活动不断增长的背景下，减缓气候变化将需要能源和农业系统的转型，这对全球水资源构成了重大挑战。我们使用水-能源-土地-气候系统的集成建模框架来评估气候变化减缓导致的电力和土地利用变化，替代性社会经济（社会经济共同路径）和水政策假设（灌溉）对水需求的影响生物能源作物，发电冷却技术）。减缓气候变化对整个世纪累计全球需水量的影响是高度不确定的，并且取决于社会经济和水政策条件，其影响范围从减少15,000 km（3）到增加超过160,000 km（3）。生物能源作物灌溉的影响是最突出的因素，如果灌溉生物能源作物，那么在减缓气候变化的条件下，水的需求量将大大增加。社会经济驱动力和化石燃料供应的差异导致电力和生物能源需求，相关的电力和一次能源混合以及水需求方面的显着差异。经济上的富裕和化石燃料的丰富，由于对能源的更高需求以及对诸如生物能源和核能之类的耗水量大的技术的更多部署，加剧了对水资源的压力。未来冷却系统的发展也被认为是电力需求的重要决定因素。如果将气候政策与生物能源灌溉政策以及非水密集型电源和冷却类型的部署相结合，可以减少水资源需求。 （C）2016 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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