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首页> 外文期刊>EuroChoices >EU dairy policy reforms: Luxembourg reform, WTO negotiations and the quota regime. (Special Issue: Focus on the future of the EU dairy sector.)
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EU dairy policy reforms: Luxembourg reform, WTO negotiations and the quota regime. (Special Issue: Focus on the future of the EU dairy sector.)

机译：欧盟乳制品政策改革：卢森堡改革，世贸组织谈判和配额制度。 （特刊：关注欧盟乳业的未来。）

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摘要

We analyse the impact of a WTO agreement in the dairy sector as well as the impact of the expansion of quota proposed by the European Commission. The impacts of these two scenarios are evaluated in comparison to a reference case represented by the dairy policy defined in the Luxembourg Reform. We show that a WTO agreement according to the line suggested in the Falconer proposal will lead to a slight increase in milk price rather than a decline. In contrast, the recent proposal of the EU Commission to gradually phase out milk quota implies a significant decline in price. The average farm milk price in the EU would be 9 per cent lower than in the Luxembourg scenario. Phasing out of milk quota will lead to an increase in the EU's milk production of about 3 per cent as compared to the Luxembourg scenario. The increased milk output will lead to significant increases in EU net exports to the world market, which in turn will create a significant downward pressure on world market prices. This reform will generate a large and negative impact on farmers and quota owners' surpluses and a large and positive impact on consumers.
机译：我们分析了WTO协议对乳制品业的影响以及欧盟委员会提议的扩大配额的影响。与卢森堡改革中定义的乳制品政策代表的参考案例相比，评估了这两种情况的影响。我们表明，按照Falconer提案中的建议，世贸组织协议将导致牛奶价格略有上涨，而不是下跌。相反，欧盟委员会最近逐步淘汰牛奶配额的建议意味着价格大幅下降。欧盟的平均农场牛奶价格将比卢森堡的情景低9％。与卢森堡的情况相比，逐步淘汰牛奶配额将导致欧盟的牛奶产量增加约3％。牛奶产量的增加将导致欧盟对世界市场的净出口量显着增加，进而对世界市场价格造成巨大的下行压力。这项改革将对农民和配额所有者的盈余产生巨大的负面影响，并对消费者产生巨大的积极影响。

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