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首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America >Probability for simulating future earthquakes with M_w ≥6.0 in Taiwan for seismic hazard for the earthquake catalog from 1900 to 2008 (Note)
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Probability for simulating future earthquakes with M_w ≥6.0 in Taiwan for seismic hazard for the earthquake catalog from 1900 to 2008 (Note)

机译：1900年至2008年地震目录中模拟台湾M_w≥6.0的未来地震的地震危险的概率（注）

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摘要

In this study, we use extreme value theory based on Gumbel-equation derivations to estimate the Gutenberg-Richter a and b parameters for Taiwan. Data are from the augmented, homogenized (in terms of moment magnitude), historic catalog for Taiwan. The island is divided into grids of 0.2° latitude by 0.2° longitude, and Gumbel type 1 statistical analysis is applied. The values of a and b are then used to determine the probability of large earthquakes (M_w ≥6.0) occurring at each grid. The results show two relatively high probability paths for large earthquakes, one extending from Hsinchu southward to Taichung, Chiayi, and Tainan in western Taiwan and the other from Ilan southward to Hualian and Taitung in eastern Taiwan, both of which are characterized by low b-values. It indicates that future earthquakes can be expected along these paths characterized by low b-values. Additionally, maximum peak ground acceleration and maximum peak ground velocity (determined from respective attenuation laws and a gridding regimen of 0.1° latitude by 0.1° longitude for Taiwan) follow similar paths to that of the low b-values.
机译：在这项研究中，我们使用基于Gumbel方程推导的极值理论来估计台湾的Gutenberg-Richter a和b参数。数据来自台湾的经过扩充，同质化（按矩量表示）的历史目录。将该岛划分为0.2度经度和0.2度经度的网格，并应用Gumbel类型1统计分析。然后使用a和b的值确定每个网格处发生大地震（M_w≥6.0）的可能性。结果表明，发生大地震的两条相对较高的概率路径，一条从新竹向南延伸至台湾西部的台中，嘉义和台南，另一条从宜兰向南延伸至台湾东部的华联和台东，二者的特征均具有较低的b-值。价值观。这表明沿这些以低b值为特征的路径可能会发生地震。此外，最大峰值地面加速度和最大峰值地面速度（由相应的衰减定律和台湾经度为0.1°乘以0.1°的网格划分方法确定）遵循与低b值相似的路径。

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