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首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America >Discrepancy between earthquake rates implied by historic earthquakes and a consensus geologic source model for California
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Discrepancy between earthquake rates implied by historic earthquakes and a consensus geologic source model for California

机译：历史地震隐含的地震发生率与加利福尼亚州一致的地质源模型之间的差异

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摘要

We examine the difference between expected earthquake rates inferred from the historical earthquake catalog and the geologic data that was used to develop the consensus seismic source characterization for the state of California [California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Petersen et al., 1996; Frankel et al., 1996]. On average the historic earthquake catalog and the seismic source model both indicate about one M 6 or greater earthquake per year in the state of California. However, the overall earthquake rates of earthquakes with magnitudes (M) between 6 and 7 in this seismic source model are higher, by at least a factor of 2, than the mean historic earthquake rates for both southern and northern California. The earthquake rate discrepancy results from a seismic source model that includes earthquakes with characteristic (maximum) magnitudes that are primarily between M 6.4 and 7.1. Many of these faults are interpreted to accommodate high strain rates from geologic and geodetic data but have not ruptured in large earthquakes during historic time. Our sensitivity study indicates that the rate differences between magnitudes 6 and 7 can be reduced by adjusting the magnitude-frequency distribution of the source model to reflect more characteristic behavior, by decreasing the moment rate available for seismogenic slip along faults, by increasing the maximum magnitude of the earthquake on a fault, or by decreasing the maximum magnitude of the background seismicity. However, no single parameter can be adjusted, consistent with scientific consensus, to eliminate the earthquake rate discrepancy. Applying a combination of these parametric adjustments yields an alternative earthquake source model that is more compatible with the historic data. The 475-year return period hazard for peak ground and 1-sec spectral acceleration resulting from this alternative source model differs from the hazard resulting from the standard CDMG-USGS model by less than 10% across most of California but is higher (generally about 10% to 30%) within 20 km from some faults. [References: 29]
机译：我们研究了从历史地震目录推断出的预期地震发生率与用于开发加利福尼亚州[加利福尼亚自然资源保护部，矿产与地质司（CDMG）和美国地质学》的共识地震源特征的地质数据之间的差异。调查（USGS）Petersen等，1996; Frankel等，1996]。平均而言，历史地震目录和地震震源模型都表明，加利福尼亚州每年大约发生1次M 6或更大的地震。但是，此震源模型中6级和7级之间的M级地震的总体地震发生率比加利福尼亚南部和北部的平均历史地震发生率高至少2倍。地震速率差异是由地震源模型产生的，该模型包括特征（最大）震级主要在M 6.4和7.1之间的地震。这些断层中的许多断层被解释为适应地质和大地测量数据中的高应变率，但在历史时期并未在大地震中破裂。我们的敏感性研究表明，可以通过调整震源模型的幅频分布来反映更多特征行为，减小沿断层的地震成因滑动可用的矩速率，增加最大震级来减小6级和7级之间的速率差异。断层上地震的发生，或通过降低背景地震活动的最大震级。但是，没有任何一个参数可以调整以符合科学共识，以消除地震率差异。应用这些参数调整的组合会产生一个与历史数据更加兼容的替代震源模型。在整个加利福尼亚州大部分地区，这种替代源模型对峰值地面和1秒频谱加速造成的475年回归期危害与标准CDMG-USGS模型所造成的危害相差不到10％，但更高（通常约为10 ％至30％），距离某些断层20公里以内。 [参考：29]

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