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首页> 外文期刊>Geophysical Research Letters >The impact of greenhouse gases and halogenated species on future solar UV radiation doses
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The impact of greenhouse gases and halogenated species on future solar UV radiation doses

机译：温室气体和卤化物对未来太阳紫外线辐射剂量的影响

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The future development of stratospheric ozone layer depends on the concentration of chlorine and bromine containing species. The stratosphere is also expected to be affected by future enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. These result in a cooling of the winter polar stratosphere and to more stable polar vortices which leads to enhanced chemical depletion and reduced transport of ozone into high latitudes. One of the driving forces behind the interest in stratospheric ozone is the impact of ozone on solar UV-B radiation. In this study UV scenarios have been constructed based on ozone predictions from the chemistry-climate model runs carried out by GISS, UKMO and DLR. Since cloudiness, albedo and terrain height are also important factors, climatological values of these quantities are taken into account in the UV calculations. Relative to 1979-92 conditions, for the 2010-2020 time period the GISS model results indicate a springtime enhancement of erythemal UV doses of up to 90% in the 60-90 degrees N region and an enhancement of 100% in the 60-90 degrees S region. The corresponding maximum increases in the annual Northern Hemispheric UV doses are estimated to be 14 % in 2010-20, and 2 % in 2040-50. In the Southern Hemisphere 40 % enhancement is expected during 2010-20 and 27 % duping 2040-50. [References: 13]
机译：平流层臭氧层的未来发展取决于含氯和含溴物质的浓度。预计平流层还将受到未来温室气体浓度增加的影响。这些导致冬季极地平流层变冷，并使极地涡旋更稳定，从而导致化学耗竭增加，并减少了臭氧向高纬度的输送。对平流层臭氧的兴趣背后的推动力之一是臭氧对太阳UV-B辐射的影响。在这项研究中，基于由GISS，UKMO和DLR进行的化学-气候模型运行中的臭氧预测，构建了紫外线情景。由于多云，反照率和地形高度也是重要因素，因此在紫外线计算中应考虑这些量的气候值。相对于1979-92年的条件，对于2010-2020年的时间段，GISS模型结果表明，春季的红斑紫外线剂量在60-90度N区域可高达90％，而在60-90度区域可提高100％度S区。据估计，北半球每年紫外线剂量的相应最大增加量在2010-20年为14％，在2040-50年为2％。在南半球，预计2010-20年将增加40％，而2040-50年将增加27％。 [参考：13]

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