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Potential impact of climate change on selected agricultural crops in north-eastern Austria

机译：气候变化对奥地利东北部某些农作物的潜在影响

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The vulnerability and adaptation of major agricultural crops to various soils in northeastern Austria under a changing climate were investigated. The CERES crop model for winter wheat and the CROPGRO model for soybean were validated for the agrometeorological conditions in the selected region. The simulated winter wheat and soybean yields in most cases agreed with the measured data. Several incremental and transient global circulation model (GCM) climate change scenarios were created and used in the study. In these scenarios, annual temperatures in the selected region are expected to rise between 0.9 and 4.8degreesC from the 2020s to the 2080s. The results show that warming will decrease the crop-growing duration of the selected crops. For winter wheat, a gradual increase in air temperature resulted in a yield decrease. Incremental warming, especially in combination with an increase in precipitation, leads to higher soybean yield. A drier climate will reduce soybean yield, especially on soils with low water storage capacity. All transient GCM climate change scenarios for the 21st century, including the adjustment for only air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation, projected reductions of winter wheat yield. However, when the direct effect of increased levels Of CO2 concentration was assumed, all GCM climate change scenarios projected an increase in winter wheat yield in the region. The increase in simulated soybean yield for the 21st century was primarily because of the positive impact of warming and especially of the beneficial influence of the direct CO2 effect. Changes in climate variability were found to affect winter wheat and soybean yield in various ways. Results from the adaptation assessments suggest that changes in sowing date, winter wheat and soybean cultivar selection could significantly affect crop production in the 21st century.
机译：在气候变化的情况下，研究了奥地利东北部主要农作物对各种土壤的脆弱性和适应性。针对所选地区的农业气象条件，对冬小麦的CERES作物模型和大豆的CROPGRO模型进行了验证。在大多数情况下，模拟的冬小麦和大豆单产与实测数据一致。在研究中创建并使用了几种增量和瞬变的全球环流模型（GCM）气候变化情景。在这些情况下，从2020年代到2080年代，所选区域的年气温预计将上升0.9至4.8摄氏度。结果表明，变暖将减少所选作物的作物生长持续时间。对于冬小麦，气温的逐渐升高导致单产下降。逐渐变暖，尤其是与降水增加相结合，会导致大豆单产提高。较干燥的气候会降低大豆产量，尤其是在储水能力低的土壤上。 21世纪所有短暂的GCM气候变化情景，包括仅针对气温，降水和太阳辐射的调整，以及预计冬小麦单产的下降。但是，当假定CO2浓度增加的直接影响时，所有GCM气候变化情景都预测该地区冬小麦产量增加。 21世纪模拟大豆产量的增加主要是由于气候变暖的积极影响，尤其是直接CO2效应的有益影响。发现气候变异性的变化以各种方式影响冬小麦和大豆的产量。适应性评估的结果表明，播种日期，冬小麦和大豆品种选择的变化会显着影响21世纪的作物产量。

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