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Simulating fire regimes in human-dominated ecosystems: Iberian Peninsula case study

机译：在人类主导的生态系统中模拟火灾状况：伊比利亚半岛案例研究

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摘要

A new fire model is proposed which estimates areas burnt on a macro-scale (10-100 km). It consists of three parts: evaluation of fire danger due to climatic conditions, estimation of the number of fires and the extent of the area burnt. The model can operate on three time steps, daily, monthly and yearly, and interacts with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), thereby providing an important forcing for natural competition. Fire danger is related to number of dry days and amplitude of daily temperature during these days. The number of fires during fire days varies with human population density. Areas burnt are calculated based on average wind speed, available fuel and fire duration. The model has been incorporated into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) and has been tested for peninsular Spain. LPJ-DGVM was modified to allow bi-directional feedback between fire disturbance and vegetation dynamics. The number of fires and areas burnt were simulated for the period 1974-94 and compared against observations. The model produced realistic results, which are well correlated, both spatially and temporally, with the fire statistics. Therefore, a relatively simple mechanistic fire model can be used to reproduce fire regime patterns in human- dominated ecosystems over a large region and a long time period.
机译：提出了一种新的火灾模型，该模型可在宏观尺度（10-100公里）上估算燃烧面积。它由三个部分组成：评估由于气候条件引起的火灾危险，估算火灾次数和燃烧面积。该模型可以每天，每月和每年三个时间步长运行，并与动态全球植被模型（DGVM）交互，从而为自然竞争提供了重要的推动力。火灾危险与这些天的干旱天数和每日温度的幅度有关。火灾当天的火灾次数随人口密度而变化。根据平均风速，可用燃料和燃烧持续时间来计算燃烧面积。该模型已被纳入隆德-波茨坦-耶拿动态全球植被模型（LPJ-DGVM），并已在西班牙半岛进行了测试。 LPJ-DGVM进行了修改，以允许火灾干扰和植被动态之间的双向反馈。模拟了1974-94年期间的火灾次数和燃烧面积，并与观察结果进行了比较。该模型产生了逼真的结果，这些结果在空间和时间上都与火灾统计数据紧密相关。因此，可以使用相对简单的机械火灾模型在较大区域和较长时间内重现人类主导的生态系统中的火灾状况模式。

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