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From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots

机译：从全球到区域再到世界各地：海洋生态系统的共同气候压力源与五个海洋变暖热点的适应相关

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Ocean warming 'hotspots' are regions characterized by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high-resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO2-driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas.
机译：海洋变暖的“热点”是近年来温度升高高于平均水平的地区，这对海洋生物资源及其赖以生存的社会都将产生重大影响。因此，它们代表了用于了解海洋气候变化影响的预警系统，以及为开发适应方案来应对这些影响的试验台。在这里，我们研究了澳大利亚东部，南非，马达加斯加，印度和巴西沿海的五个热点。这些特别的热点为大型国际伙伴关系提供了基础，该伙伴关系通过提供，共享知识来表征，评估和预测沿海海洋粮食资源的可能未来，从而致力于改善社区适应性。为了告知这项工作，我们采用了由“代表浓度路径” 8.5强制建立的高分辨率全球海洋模型，并模拟到2099年。除海面温度外，我们还分析了预计的分层，养分供应，初级生产，人为二氧化碳驱动的海洋酸化，脱氧和海洋循环。我们的模拟发现，这里研究的温度热点将继续经历变暖，但是，除了澳大利亚东部以外，下个世纪可能不会保持最快的变暖海洋区域，因为预计最强烈的变暖将发生在亚极和极地。北半球地区。此外，我们发现，近期海温的快速变化并不一定表明这些地区也是其他受气候因素影响的热点。但是，这里研究的热点始终如一的方面是，它们都受到海洋环流的强烈影响，海洋环流在最近的过去已经显示出变化，并且预计在未来还会发生进一步的变化。除了快速变暖以外，当地海洋环流的变化还代表了当前和未来气候变化对这些地区海洋生态系统的影响。

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