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首页> 外文期刊>Global ecology and biogeography >Climate change and modelled biome representation in Canada's national park system: implications for system planning and park mandates
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Climate change and modelled biome representation in Canada's national park system: implications for system planning and park mandates

机译：加拿大国家公园系统中的气候变化和模拟生物群落代表：对系统规划和公园授权的影响

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Aim The study examined the potential for change in biome representation within Canada's national park system under multiple climate change scenarios and subsequent potential vulnerabilities in Parks Canada policy and planning frameworks. Location The study was conducted fro Canada's 39 national parks. Methods The vegetation change scenarios were based on modelling results from the BIOME3 and MAPSS equilibrium process-based global vegetation models (GVM), run with multiple doubled-CO_2 climate change scenarios. The six vegetation distribution scenarios were calculated at 0.5° latitude-longitude resolution and the boundaries of 39 national parks superimposed in a geographic information system (GIS). Park management plans and other planning documents were also reviewed as part of the analysis. Results The proportional distribution of biomes in Canada's national park system was very similar (within 3% of area for each biome) using BIOME3 and MAPSS under the current climate. Regardless of the GVM and climate change scenario used, the modelling results suggest the potential for substantial change in the biome representation in Canada's national park system. In five of six vegetation scenarios, a novel biome type appeared in more than half of the national parks and greater than 50% of al vegetation grid boxes changed biome type. The proportional representation of tundra and taiga/tundra in the national park system declined in each of the vegetation scenarios, while more southerly biomes (temperate forests and savanna/woodland) increased (in some scenarios doubling to quadrupling). Results for boreal forest varied among the climater change scenarios. A range of potential vulnerabilities in existing policy and planning frameworks were identified, including the national park system plan, individual park objectives, and fire and exotic species management plans. Conclusions Climate change represents an unprecedented challenge to Parks Canada and its ability to achieve its conservation mandate as presently legislated. Research is needed not only on ecosystem responses to climate change, but also on the capacity of conservation systems and agencies to adapt to climate change.
机译：目的该研究考察了在多种气候变化情景下加拿大国家公园系统内生物群落代表性的变化潜力，以及加拿大公园政策和规划框架中随后的潜在漏洞。位置该研究是在加拿大的39个国家公园进行的。方法植被变化情景基于BIOME3和基于MAPSS平衡过程的全球植被模型（GVM）的建模结果，并使用多个CO_2气候变化情景进行了模拟。六个植被分布方案是在经纬度为0.5°的情况下计算的，并且将39个国家公园的边界叠加在地理信息系统（GIS）中。作为分析的一部分，还审查了公园管理计划和其他规划文件。结果在当前气候下，使用BIOME3和MAPSS在加拿大国家公园系统中生物群落的比例分布非常相似（每个生物群落的面积在3％以内）。无论使用哪种GVM和气候变化方案，建模结果都表明加拿大国家公园系统中生物群落代表的潜在重大变化。在六个植被情景中的五个中，超过一半的国家公园都出现了一种新的生物群落类型，并且超过50％的所有植被网格箱都改变了生物群落类型。在每种植被方案中，国家公园系统中苔原和针叶林/苔原的比例表示均下降，而更多的偏南生物群落（温带森林和热带稀树草原/林地）则有所增加（在某些情况下成倍增长至四倍）。在气候变化情景中，北方森林的结果各不相同。确定了现有政策和规划框架中的一系列潜在漏洞，包括国家公园系统计划，单个公园目标以及火灾和外来物种管理计划。结论气候变化对加拿大公园及其实现目前立法规定的保护任务的能力提出了前所未有的挑战。不仅需要研究生态系统对气候变化的反应，还需要研究保护系统和机构适应气候变化的能力。

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