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首页> 外文期刊>Berliner und Munchener Tierarztliche Wochenschrift >Risk assessment of Bluetongue Disease incursion into Germany using geographic information system (GIS) [German]
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Risk assessment of Bluetongue Disease incursion into Germany using geographic information system (GIS) [German]

机译：使用地理信息系统（GIS）评估蓝舌病入侵德国的风险[德国]

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摘要

Using a geographic information system (GIS), by analysis of the relationship between the spatial distribution of cattle density and the risk factors temperature, altitude and rainfall, we defined geographical habitats enabling optimal development and competence of Culicoides spp. to transmit Bluetongue-Virus (BTV). Risk zones (low, high, highest risk) were identified mainly in Baden-Wurttemberg, Hessen and Rheinland-Pfalz. If persistently infected ruminants are imported into these zones in summer (June to August mainly), based on the current climatic conditions, BTD outbreaks are considered a real possibility. Overwintering of the virus seems unlikely. However, global warming will lead to a steady increase of the size of the risk zones. In addition,the possibility of primary outbreaks increases. The reason for this is not only the expected northern shift of Culicoides imicola, but in addition an increasing vector competence of domestic Culicoides species. We therefore recommend the storage of vaccines as well as conducting ecological studies analysing the presence of Culicoides vectors. Using the data from these studies, it will be possible to produce updated quantitative risk assessment via GIS.
机译：通过使用地理信息系统（GIS），通过分析牛密度的空间分布与危险因素温度，高度和降雨之间的关系，我们定义了能够实现库里科斯藻最佳开发和能力的地理栖息地。传播蓝舌病毒（BTV）。主要在巴登-符腾堡州，黑森州和莱茵兰-普法尔茨州确定了风险区（低，高，最高风险）。如果在夏季（主要是6月至8月）在夏天（主要是6月至8月）向这些区域输入持续感染的反刍动物，则认为BTD暴发确实是可能的。病毒越冬似乎不太可能。但是，全球变暖将导致风险区的规模稳步增加。另外，主要爆发的可能性增加。这样做的原因不仅是预期的库米（Culicoides imicola）北移，而且还有国内库里克（Culicoides）物种的媒介能力不断提高。因此，我们建议存储疫苗并进行生态研究，以分析库里科尼德载体的存在。使用这些研究的数据，将有可能通过GIS进行更新的定量风险评估。

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