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The Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on river flow of three major Iberian rivers

机译：北大西洋涛动对伊比利亚三大河流量的影响

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摘要

We have assessed the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the winter precipitation at various spatial scales, namely; Europe, Iberian Peninsula and Portugal. Results show that the large inter-annual variability of winter precipitation in Portugal is largely modulated by the NAO mode. The precipitation composite corresponding to high NAO (> 0.5) index presents a considerable lower median value than the corresponding low NAO (< -0.5) index class. Furthermore, the entire precipitation distribution associated to the low NAO index composite encompasses a wider range of values than the corresponding high NAO index composite. Finally, we have assessed the impact of the NAO on winter river flow regimes for the three main international Iberian rivers, the Douro (north), the Tagus (centre) and the Guadiana (south). Results show that the large inter-annual variability of flow of these three rivers is largely modulated by the NAO. Such modulation, associated with the recent positive trend of the NAO index, might implicate a significant decrease of the available flow. This reduction can represent an important hazard for the Portuguese and Spanish economy due to its impact in agricultural yield and hydroelectric power production.
机译：我们评估了北大西洋涛动（NAO）在各种空间尺度上对冬季降水的影响，即：欧洲，伊比利亚半岛和葡萄牙。结果表明，葡萄牙冬季降水的年际大变化主要受NAO模式的调节。对应于高NAO（> 0.5）指数的降水复合物的中值明显低于对应的低NAO（<-0.5）指数类别。此外，与相应的高NAO指数合成物相比，与低NAO指数合成物相关的整个降水量分布范围更广。最后，我们评估了NAO对伊比利亚三大主要国际河流杜罗河（北），塔霍河（中部）和瓜迪亚纳河（南）的冬季河水流量的影响。结果表明，这三条河流的年际流量变化很大，受NAO调节。与NAO指数最近的积极趋势相关的这种调节可能意味着可用流量的显着减少。由于其对农业产量和水力发电的影响，这种减少可能对葡萄牙和西班牙经济构成重大危害。

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