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Analysis of trade in illegally harvested timber: Accounting for trade via third party countries

机译：非法采伐木材贸易分析：通过第三方国家进行贸易核算

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The paper presents a model to analyse trade in illegally harvested timber with a particular focus on trade via third party countries. The model is deduced from the conventional input-output-analysis. In contrast to this type of analysis, inverse export coefficients are introduced to analyse the effect of a certain amount of country-specific supply, e.g., of illegally harvested timber, to the use of wood and wood products of all other countries, based on trade relationships. A database has been compiled especially for application of the model. It comprises data on industrial round-wood production in terms of industrial wood harvested and removed from the forest; recovered wood fibre in the form of recovered paper and waste wood; bilateral trade of 272 wood-based commodities in mpd raw wood equivalent (rwe), and domestic use of those commodities. Two scenarios expressing high and low estimates of illegal harvesting for all countries have been employed in the model. The model reveals the trade linkages between all countries of the world and allows quantification of the global supply and use arising from illegal harvesting. Furthermore it allows calculation of the import of illegally harvested timber for each country of the world. And finally, the model likewise allows the quantification of domestic use of illegally harvested timber for each country of the world. The results show that international trade increases the global domestic supply of illegally harvested timber by more than 70% in each scenario. In particular industrial round-wood from Papua New Guinea, Malaysia, Indonesia and Myanmar passes through many countries until it ends in form of finished wood products in the country of final destination. Not only due to suggested illegally harvested timber in the own country, but also due to strongly developed trade relationships, China holds the lead in total supply and use of illegally harvested timber. However this result must be seen against the background of the large population in China. This aspect also helps to explain the predominant position of China, Brazil and Russia with regard to the domestic use of illegally harvested timber. A comparison of import of illegally harvested timber on the basis of simple (covering only bilateral trade) and inverse export coefficients demonstrates the model's merit. The hitherto usually simple approach underestimates the real trade by a third up to a half.
机译：本文提出了一个模型，用于分析非法采伐木材的贸易，特别侧重于通过第三方国家的贸易。该模型是从传统的投入产出分析中推导出来的。与这种类型的分析相反，引入了逆向出口系数，以根据贸易分析特定国家特定数量的供应（例如，非法采伐的木材）对所有其他国家的木材和木制品的使用的影响关系。已经为该模型的应用专门编译了一个数据库。它包括以砍伐和从森林中砍伐的工业木材为单位的工业圆木生产数据;以废纸和废木材的形式回收的木纤维; mpd原木当量（rwe）的272种木质商品的双边贸易以及这些商品的国内使用。该模型采用了两种表示所有国家非法收成估计数的高和低的方案。该模型揭示了世界所有国家之间的贸易联系，并可以对非法采伐引起的全球供应和使用进行量化。此外，它还可以计算世界上每个国家/地区的非法采伐木材的进口量。最后，该模型同样可以量化世界每个国家对非法采伐木材的国内使用量。结果表明，在每种情况下，国际贸易都会使全球国内非法采伐木材的供应增加70％以上。特别是来自巴布亚新几内亚，马来西亚，印度尼西亚和缅甸的工业圆木经过许多国家，直到以成品木制品的形式最终销往最终目的地国。不仅由于建议在本国进行非法采伐的木材，而且由于贸易关系的发展，中国在非法采伐的木材的总供应和使用方面处于领先地位。但是，必须在中国人口众多的背景下看待这一结果。这方面也有助于解释中国，巴西和俄罗斯在国内使用非法采伐木材方面的主要地位。根据简单（仅涵盖双边贸易）和逆向出口系数对非法采伐木材的进口进行比较，证明了该模型的优点。迄今为止通常简单的方法将实际交易低估了三分之一至一半。

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