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Can behavioral decision theory explain risk-averse fire management decisions?

机译：行为决策理论可以解释规避风险的消防管理决策吗？

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摘要

Organizations managing forest land often make fire management decisions that seem overly risk-averse in relation to their stated goals for ecosystem restoration, protection of sensitive species and habitats, and protection of water and timber resources. Research in behavioral decision theory has shown that people faced with difficult decisions under uncertainty and decisions with multiple and conflicting objectives adopt mental shortcuts that systematically bias decision-making. Fire management decisions exhibit exactly the characteristics that are likely to trigger such mental shortcuts. Cumulative and unwitting use of mental shortcuts can lead to fire management decisions that are excessively risk-averse, to the point of jeopardizing stated management goals. It can also cause retrospective analyses of fire decisions to focus inappropriately on placing blame for bad outcomes and fail to scrutinize the quality of the decision itself. Excessive risk aversion is evident in the behavior of individual land managers, land management organizations, regulatory agencies that review land management decisions, and the general public and its agents in the media, courts and legislature. Remedies to excessive risk aversion include: (1) wider use of structured decision processes designed to counteract the mental shortcuts that plague human decision-making, (2) structural and educational changes within and between organizations to change perverse incentives that reward risk aversion and discourage adaptive management, and (3) locally focused collaborations among land management agencies, regulatory agencies, and citizens to build trust and to enhance understanding of forest management goals and practices..
机译：管理林地的组织通常会就其生态系统恢复，保护敏感物种和栖息地以及保护水和木材资源的既定目标做出过分规避风险的火灾管理决策。行为决策理论的研究表明，人们在不确定性下面临困难的决策，而具有多个目标和相互冲突的目标的决策则采用了捷径，这些捷径会系统地偏向决策。消防管理决策确切展现出可能触发此类思维捷径的特征。蓄意和无意识地使用思维捷径可能导致过度避免风险的消防管理决策，甚至危及既定的管理目标。这也可能导致对火灾决策的回顾性分析，以不恰当地专注于对不良结果负责，而无法仔细检查决策本身的质量。个别土地管理者，土地管理组织，审查土地管理决定的监管机构，以及公众，媒体，法院和立法机关的代理人的行为中，都表现出过度的风险规避。过度规避风险的补救措施包括：（1）广泛使用旨在消除困扰人类决策的思维捷径的结构化决策流程;（2）组织内部和组织之间的结构和教育变革，以改变奖励规避风险和挫败感的不正当激励措施适应性管理;以及（3）土地管理机构，监管机构和公民之间在本地进行的合作，以建立信任并增强对森林管理目标和实践的理解。

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