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首页> 外文期刊>Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics >Early detection of financial difficulties on Quebec dairy farms.
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Early detection of financial difficulties on Quebec dairy farms.

机译：尽早发现魁北克奶牛场的财务困难。

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摘要

This paper determines the most important variables linked with financial distress of Quebec dairy farms with a view to developing a measure for the early detection of farms in financial difficulty. Using the Agritel data base, 67 financially healthyfarms and 41 in financial distress in 1992 were selected. For each group, data for 1988-92 were used. Logistic regression models, discriminant analysis and nonparametric discriminant analysis were adopted. Three types of variables must be considered tomake an effective diagnosis: (1) current and long-term debt: farms in distress in 1988 had larger short-term debt than healthy ones; (2) good enough technical and economic results to reach a minimum level of viability; and (3) non-productive fixed assetsmust be limited. Five variables are retained to make a diagnosis up to five years before the financial distress occurs.
机译：本文确定了与魁北克奶牛场财务困境相关的最重要变量，以期开发出一种措施，用于早期发现财务困难的奶牛场。使用Agritel数据库，1992年选择了67个财务状况良好的农场和41个财务困境的农场。对于每个组，均使用1988-92年的数据。采用Logistic回归模型，判别分析和非参数判别分析。为了有效诊断，必须考虑三种类型的变量：（1）当前和长期债务：1988年陷入困境的农场的短期债务要大于健康农场的短期债务; （2）足够好的技术和经济成果，以达到最低的生存水平; （3）必须限制非生产性固定资产。保留五个变量以在财务危机发生之前进行长达五年的诊断。

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