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首页> 外文期刊>Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics >Agricultural land-use change in Prairie Canada: implications for wetland and waterfowl habitat conservation. (Special Issue: 2011 Special Issue on Wetlands Management, Economics and Policy.)
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Agricultural land-use change in Prairie Canada: implications for wetland and waterfowl habitat conservation. (Special Issue: 2011 Special Issue on Wetlands Management, Economics and Policy.)

机译：加拿大大草原的农业土地利用变化：对湿地和水禽栖息地的保护意义。 （特刊：2011年湿地管理，经济学和政策特刊。）

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Wetlands and waterfowl in the prairie pothole region (PPR) of North America are inextricably linked to agriculture. Government and private agencies must therefore understand agricultural land-use change to implement effective conservation. We develop a land-use model to predict the proportion of land in eight agricultural uses in Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. We then use the model to simulate future land use to better understand the potential impacts of agricultural land-use change on wetland and waterfowl habitat. We also simulate acreage-based subsidy programs to investigate their potential effectiveness as conservation payment programs. Last, we compare predicted subsidy impacts across space with waterfowl densities to highlight the potential for spatial targeting to increase conservation cost-effectiveness. Our results indicate that agricultural expansion and intensification are likely to continue, with a predicted increase of over 10 million acres of intensive spring crops. Predicted conversion of pasture land (which contains the most productive wetlands and waterfowl habitat) is heterogeneous across Canada's pothole region, suggesting the potential for spatially targeted conservation programs. Simulations of alternative conservation targeting strategies indicate that limited conservation dollars should be targeted toward high-quality habitat that is at relatively low risk of converting.Digital Object Identifier http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7976.2010.01212.x
机译：北美草原坑洼地区（PPR）的湿地和水禽与农业有着千丝万缕的联系。因此，政府和私人机构必须了解农业土地用途的变化，以实施有效的保护。我们开发了一个土地利用模型来预测阿尔伯塔省，曼尼托巴省和萨斯喀彻温省八种农业用途中土地的比例。然后，我们使用该模型来模拟未来的土地利用，以更好地了解农业土地利用变化对湿地和水禽栖息地的潜在影响。我们还模拟了基于种植面积的补贴计划，以调查其作为保护性付款计划的潜在有效性。最后，我们将预测的补贴对整个空间的影响与水禽的密度进行比较，以突出显示针对空间的潜力，以提高保护成本效益。我们的结果表明，农业扩张和集约化有可能继续进行，预计春季集约农作物将超过1000万英亩。在加拿大的坑洼地区，牧场的预计转化（其中包含生产力最高的湿地和水禽栖息地）是异类的，这表明在空间上有针对性的保护计划的潜力。替代性保护目标策略的模拟表明，有限的保护资金应针对转换风险相对较低的高质量栖息地。数字对象标识符http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7976.2010.01212 。X

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