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Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting

机译：基于Internet的业务预测虚拟股票市场

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摘要

The application of Internet-based virtual stock markets (VSMs) is an additional approach that can be used to predict short- and medium-term market developments. The basic to trade shares of virtual stocks. These stocks represent a bet on the outcome of future market situations, and their value depends on the realization of these market situations. In this process, a VSM elicits and aggregates the assessments of its participants concerning future market developments. The aim of this article is to evaluate the potential use and the different design possibilities as well as the forecast accuracy and performance of VSMs compared to expert predictions for their application to business forecasting. After introducing the basic idea of using VSMs for business forecasting, we discuss the different design possibilities for such VSMs. In three real-world applications, we analyze the feasibility and forecast accuracy of VSMs, compare the performance of VSMs to expert predictions, and propose a new validity test for VSM forecasts. Finally, we draw conclusions and provide suggestions for future research.
机译：基于Internet的虚拟股票市场（VSM）的应用是可以用来预测短期和中期市场发展的另一种方法。基本交易虚拟股票的股份。这些股票代表着未来市场形势的结果，其价值取决于这些市场形势的实现。在此过程中，VSM得出并汇总了其参与者对未来市场发展的评估。本文的目的是评估VSM的潜在用途和不同的设计可能性，以及与专家预测相比较的VSM预测准确性和性能，以将其应用于业务预测。在介绍了使用VSM进行业务预测的基本思想之后，我们讨论了此类VSM的不同设计可能性。在三个实际应用中，我们分析了VSM的可行性和预测准确性，将VSM的性能与专家预测进行了比较，并提出了VSM预测的新有效性检验。最后，我们得出结论并为将来的研究提供建议。

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