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Probabilistic creep rupture life evaluation of T91 alloy boiler superheater tubes influenced by steam-side oxidation

机译：T91合金锅炉过热器管受蒸汽侧氧化影响的概率蠕变断裂寿命评估

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摘要

A systematic probabilistic evaluation method for the long-term creep rupture life (LCL) of T91 alloy superheater tubes is proposed in this work. The effects of steam-side oxidation on the effective load-bearing thickness and temperature of tube wall are taken into account, and the latest assessment results of the creep rupture strength of T91 alloy are utilized. Since the uncertain factors including not only the geometry dimensions but also the operational conditions may hinder a reliable analysis, instead of usual deterministic methods, probabilistic life evaluation employing Monte Carlo simulation method is performed. The effects of initial inner tube diameter, steam temperature, and steam flow on the LCL of superheater tubes are analyzed, and simple fitting functions formulating the analysis results are obtained. The survival probability of the tubes, which reflects the possibility for the LCL to be longer than a given time, is calculated. It is found that when the initial inner tube diameter or the steam temperature increases, the survival probability of the tubes exhibits a decrease trend. However, the steam flow has an opposite effect. Based on the conclusions, feasible measures that can be adopted to improve the survival probability of high temperature steam generation components in coal-fired power plants are introduced.
机译：这项工作提出了一种系统的概率评估方法，用于T91合金过热器管的长期蠕变断裂寿命（LCL）。考虑了蒸汽侧氧化对有效承压厚度和管壁温度的影响，并采用了最新的T91合金蠕变断裂强度评估结果。由于不确定因素不仅包括几何尺寸，而且还包括操作条件，可能会妨碍可靠的分析，因此，代替通常的确定性方法，将执行采用蒙特卡洛模拟方法的概率寿命评估。分析了初始内管直径，蒸汽温度和蒸汽流量对过热器管的LCL的影响，并获得了简单的拟合函数，得出了分析结果。计算出管的存活概率，该概率反映了LCL比给定时间更长的可能性。已经发现，当初始内管直径或蒸汽温度增加时，管的存活概率呈现下降趋势。然而，蒸汽流具有相反的作用。在此基础上，提出了提高燃煤电厂高温蒸汽发生部件存活率的可行措施。

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