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EPRI's program to analyze, model, and predict costs of plant cycling

机译：EPRI的程序可以分析，建模和预测工厂循环成本

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Quantification of the effects of cycling and varied load operations in general has become much more important in today's industry. This change is largely a result of operational requirements proceeding from the deregulation of electricity markets and the change from total cost-based rate recovery under regulation, to competitive contractual arrangements and open market bidding where pricing of power based on economics of individual supplying units can make a significant difference in profitability. As a result, based on member requests, Electric Power Research Institute (Palos Alto, CA, USA), working with Applied Economic Research Co., Inc. (New York, NY, USA), has developed a program, the EPRl Cycling Impacts Program (CIP), aimed at investigating the various aspects and effects of cycling* to provide member companies with research into the area along with quantification, modeling, and analysis wherever possible, of information for use in financial and operational planning and forecasting.Over the last year and a half the program has surveyed generating company concerns and needs across the country relative to cycling; researched and examined various data sources and availability; conducted analyses of the data; and determined that correlations and modeling of operational data with plant expenditure data can be developed to provide valid methods for quantifying the relationships involved and determining cycling cost effects under various cycling conditions. The program is currently in the process of developing further modeling methodologies and-in the near term, during the spring/summer of this year (2001)-providing several member companies with modeling and analyses to determine cycling costs for specific generating units. The methods involved were explicitly developed to provide results in the near term in response to these companies' immediate operational needs.Continuing cycling program plans include development of a range of more advanced analyses and planning tools in the cost area, as well as studies of the impact of cycling on reliability/availability, component-level effects, and the effectiveness of technical solutions and alternatives. This report discusses methodologies and work in progress, as well as planned project development objectives going forward.*Note: For this work, the term 'Cycling' is used to cover a broadened definition, which is loosely: "operations involving various combinations of load variation, load level durations, annual starts and stops (hot, warm, cold), etc." The effects that impact incremental cost include not only 'cycling' mode operating variables for current and prospective operations, but also the effects of past operations in various cycling modes, which are cumulative in their effect on current going- forward operating costs.
机译：在当今的行业中，一般而言，对循环和负载变化操作的影响进行量化变得越来越重要。这种变化很大程度上是由于电力市场放松管制而产生的运营要求，以及从监管中基于总成本的费率回收到竞争性合同安排和公开市场招标的转变的结果，在这种竞争中合同定价和公开市场招标可以根据各个供应单位的经济状况对电力进行定价盈利能力上的显着差异。结果，根据会员的要求，电力研究所（美国加利福尼亚州帕洛斯阿尔托）与应用经济研究有限公司（美国纽约州）合作制定了一项计划，即“ EPR1自行车影响”计划（CIP），旨在调查自行车*的各个方面和影响*，以向会员公司提供有关该领域的研究，并尽可能量化，建模和分析用于财务和运营计划与预测的信息。该计划在过去的一年半中调查了全国各地与自行车相关的公司关注和需求;研究和检查了各种数据源和可用性;进行数据分析;并确定可以开发运营数据与工厂支出数据的相关性和建模，以提供有效的方法来量化涉及的关系并确定各种循环条件下的循环成本影响。该计划目前正在开发进一步的建模方法，并且在短期内，在今年春季（2001年）期间，为多家成员公司提供建模和分析功能，以确定特定发电机组的循环成本。明确开发了涉及的方法，以在近期内响应这些公司的近期运营需求提供结果。持续的循环计划包括在成本方面开发一系列更高级的分析和计划工具，以及对成本分析的研究。循环对可靠性/可用性，组件级影响以及技术解决方案和替代方案的有效性的影响。本报告讨论了方法论和进行中的工作，以及计划中的项目开发目标。*注：在此工作中，术语“循环”用于广义的定义，即：“涉及各种负荷组合的操作变化，负载水平持续时间，年度启动和停止（炎热，寒冷，寒冷）等。”影响增量成本的影响不仅包括当前和未来操作的“循环”模式操作变量，还包括各种循环模式下的过去操作的影响，这些影响对当前未来操作成本的影响是累积的。

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