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A visual perspective of creep rupture extrapolation

机译：蠕变破裂外推的视觉透视

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摘要

Methods of extrapolating creep rupture data to meet the needs of the engineering industry have evolved from subjective visual-graphic projections to sophisticated procedures based upon the statistical analysis of mathematical models. But the more complex procedures now available can involve difficulties in the selection or creation of satisfactory mathematical models, and the reliability of model extrapolation can therefore remain uncertain. This paper demonstrates an alternative approach that both resolves those problems and is considerably simpler to apply. Mathematical modelling is confined to the description of temperature dependence only and isothermal stress dependence is represented, with unrestricted flexibility, in numerical form. The application of this approach is described with reference to data for three alloy steels and a nickel alloy. It is argued that the exercise of visual judgement by an analyst, coupled with simple criteria of acceptability, has advantages over methodologies based on the statistical ranking of mathematical equations. The paper discusses the rationale of extrapolation, and how that leads to the logical definition of a limit to extrapolation validity.
机译：外推蠕变破裂数据以满足工程行业需求的方法已经从主观视觉图形预测发展成为基于数学模型的统计分析的复杂过程。但是，现在可用的更复杂的过程可能会在选择或创建令人满意的数学模型时遇到困难，因此模型外推的可靠性可能仍然不确定。本文演示了一种替代方法，既可以解决这些问题，又可以简化应用。数学建模仅限于温度依赖性的描述，等温应力依赖性以数值形式以不受限制的灵活性表示。参照三种合金钢和镍合金的数据描述了此方法的应用。有人认为，分析师进行视觉判断，加上简单的可接受标准，比基于数学方程统计排名的方法更具优势。本文讨论了外推的原理，以及如何得出外推有效性极限的逻辑定义。

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