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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Reply to Barbraud et al.: King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming
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Reply to Barbraud et al.: King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming

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Barbraud et al. (1) question the significance of our study (2),arguing that only population models based on statistical modelingof longer time series can provide robust conclusions. Wehave used these techniques elsewhere but here use a complementaryapproach: the investigation of the functional processes/ecological mechanisms linking climate fluctuations to lifehistory traits. We did not work on population growth rate(note that king penguin main colonies on Possession Islandare no longer increasing) and thus did not test density dependencein our population. Nor were El Nino events used as asurrogate for long-term climate trends. Instead, we used numerousenvironmental factors at different temporal and spatialscales as proxies for predicted aspects of global warming(3). In a mechanistic aspect, our time series of 9 years (i.e.,almost two generations) are sufficiently long to answer ourquestion as to what happens with fundamental fitness componentswhen environmental conditions are changing (i.e., short,proximate relationships). Our analyses and conclusions aretherefore robust. The key point missed by Barbraud et al. (1)is the dependence of king penguin, a sub-Antarctic species,on Antarctic winter sea ice (4). Regardless of current populationtrends or that these animals are long-lived, it is then legitimateto consider an extinction risk as observed in otherice-dependent populations. For instance, Western AntarcticPeninsula populations have dropped dramatically, especiallysince the 1990s, by 82, 70, and 90 since the mid-1970s forWeddell seals, Adelie penguins, and emperor penguins, respectively(5, 6). Yet any ‘‘understanding’’ of the effects of climatechanges will remain nave without integrating population dynamical,behavioral, and physiological insights to explain them (7).

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